By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile
Five outstanding Ohio agricultural leaders were honored at the Ohio Agricultural Council Hall of Fame induction ceremony during the Ohio State Fair earlier this month. Their impressive talents have shaped Ohio agriculture in their leadership roles in various educational and production organizations. Dr. Raymond Miller, David Brandt, Fred Finney, and Bill and Janet Butler were honored. They saw their talents needed and stepped in. What talents can you bring to Ohio agriculture?
On August 2, the U.S. sold 7.4 million bushels of new crop soybeans to China. This brings total U.S. sales of new crop soybeans to 130 million bushels. Currently, this sales volume has hit a 5-year low, the smallest amount of soybean sales since 2020-21. A year ago, the U.S. had already sold 210 million bushels of new crop soybeans. The big question remains, when will China aggressively buy soybeans? Brazil exported 3.744 billion bushels of soybeans in 2023, 29% more than in 2022. The picture is drastically different for the U.S., which exported 1.789 billion bushels of soybeans in 2023, 14% less than in 2022.
U.S. corn and soybean production for 2024 has seen a drastic shift in expected yields from early July to early August. Looking back to July, the week before the July 12 supply and demand (WASDE) report, the U.S. corn yield was expected to struggle to match last year’s corn yield of 177.3 bushels per acre. Since May, the USDA had forecast the 2024 corn yield at 181 and the 2024 soybean yield at 52.
Tropical Storm Beryl, originally named Hurricane Beryl when it first made landfall in Galveston, Texas, on July 8, had a significant impact on the U.S. corn crop. As Beryl moved northward west of the Mississippi River, its rainfall totaled 2 to 5 inches in the states of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana. It then made a massive right turn toward the northeastern U.S., missing most of Ohio and reaching only the northwest corner. Numerous news outlets at the time reported that the central U.S. had “received adequate rain.” By the end of July, industry estimates for U.S. corn yields were 183 to 185 pounds and soybean yields were 52 to 54 pounds.
Following the end of Tropical Storm Beryl, weekly rains occurred across the Midwestern United States through the end of July. As a result, both December 2024 new crop CBOT corn and November 2024 new crop CBOT soybeans have continued to decline. The December corn price reached its 2024 high of $5.02¼ on January 2nd. In May it reached $4.96¾, the June high was $4.78, and the July high was $4.26¼, but fell to its 2024 low of $3.95 on August 1st. The November soybean price reached its 2024 high of $12.37 on January 2nd, then fell to $11.73 in February. The high for May was $12.30 ½, the high for July was $11.33 ¾, and reached a low of $10.13 on August 1.
Yes, that’s a lot of numbers to process, but it’s important to have some perspective on what’s happening to date in 2024 for corn and soybean prices. The price trend is undoubtedly downward.
Additionally, it’s important to note that the crop insurance revenue plan had an average price of $4.66 for December 2024 CBOT corn and $11.55 for November 2024 CBOT soybeans in February. These prices, along with the coverage percentage and your APH yield, are used to determine your crop insurance coverage. To provide further perspective, the 2024 wheat revenue protection starting price was $6.79 and the crop price was determined in July using the September 2024 CBOT average of $5.51, a decrease of 18%. Wheat producers with average yields this year could be stuck in a loss scenario. Contact your crop insurance agent for more details.
Many Ohio producers are now facing a scenario not seen in over a decade: declining yields and falling prices. In December 2012, the CBOT price for corn reached $8.49 on August 10. In November 2012, the CBOT price for soybeans reached $17.89 on September 4. Many Ohio producers had lower yields this summer but very high prices. This year, the double whammy of low yields and low prices is a knockout blow for producers. The agricultural industry is experiencing grain prices at a four-year low while input prices are near multi-year highs. This is not sustainable.
Over the next one to two years, farmers’ total income is expected to continue to decline as their expenses exceed their income.
Thought of the day. “I couldn’t get tired of this in a hundred summers.” – Susan Branch.
