UUkraine has no plans to take Moscow, but its forces surprised many by advancing deep into Russian territory. They have reportedly expanded their radius of action from an initial 10 kilometers to over 30 kilometers. The recent counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region bordering Russia is not only an expression of the determination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, military leaders and soldiers, but also recalls important events in military history that are worth remembering.
In just 24 hours, Ukrainian forces defeated two key fortification lines in the Kursk region, which had cost Russia over two and a half years and over $170 million to build. Leading Kremlin critic and financier William Browder called this triumph a deep humiliation to Putin’s aura of invincibility and weakened his image before the Russian people.
While Ukraine’s advances may be small in geographical terms, they are significant in other ways that are equally, if not more, important to battlefield success. Parallel moments in history demonstrate the strategic and symbolic implications of this campaign.
Strengthening Ukrainian morale
The French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte considered morale a fundamental principle of military success and even declared: “In war, morale is to physicality as three to one.” In World War II, the Battle of Iwo Jima was a turning point in the Pacific War. This hard-fought battle for the first Japanese homeland not only gave the Allies a strategic position, but also boosted the morale of the Allied troops and the civilian population.
Ukraine’s surprise attack could serve as a similar inspiration. In the wake of a concerted Russian offensive, an outnumbered and exhausted Ukraine defied all expectations and managed to turn the tide for the moment. As with Iwo Jima, Ukraine’s goal is not to conquer new land, but rather to defeat the enemy, reclaim its homeland, and secure peace and prosperity for its people. The bold move by Zelensky and his military commander-in-chief, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky, could be the impetus for Ukrainian soldiers to continue fighting elsewhere.
Forcing Russia onto the defensive
By the end of 1776, General George Washington and his Continental Army had just suffered a series of defeats. The army was also severely short of supplies and many were beginning to doubt their commander in chief and their chances of success. Washington recognized the situation and decided to lead his troops through two decisive battles in the middle of winter, the Battles of Trenton and Princeton. In doing so, he shifted the momentum in favor of the revolutionaries and forced the British onto the defensive and to reallocate their resources.
Like the Continental Army, Ukraine has limited supplies and troops, and success will depend on carefully planned counterattacks that favor Ukraine’s smaller, more mobile forces while fending off relentless Russian pressure. The latest incursion could prompt Russia to pull resources from other regions, such as eastern Donetsk, where it has launched several offensives.
Opportunities for additional countermeasures by Ukrainian forces may arise as Russia redeploys troops, potentially requisitioning conscripts and resources from the Eastern Front, and shifts from a comprehensive offensive strategy to a more nuanced one. Given the increased Russian response, Zelensky and Syrsky must now exercise caution so as not to abandon the invaluable manpower and equipment used in the original attack.
The confusion for Russia extends well beyond the battlefield. While Putin has been embarrassed on the world stage by the Ukrainian advances, Kremlin leaders are scrambling to portray the event as an act of terrorism, further justifying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee imposed an “anti-terrorist operations” regime in three regions on Friday in response to Ukraine’s surprise border crossing. Meanwhile, Russia’s state-run Tass news agency reported that more than 76,000 people have been evacuated from the border area and Russian leaders have issued new orders to speed up further evacuations. This desperation will only sow further doubts among Russian soldiers and the public.
Strengthen international support and reassure doubters
A look at the Continental Army of the Revolutionary War also shows us how important financial and military support from foreign partners was. In 1777, General Horatio Gates and his American soldiers defeated the British forces north of Albany at the Battle of Saratoga, thus securing their own advances. They eventually convinced the French to provide the revolutionaries with additional and more extensive financial and military support. However, French help was detrimental to the continuation of the American offensive and the eventual success at Yorktown, which ended the Revolutionary War.
Perhaps the most consequential consequence of such an offensive, however, is the appeasement of international partners who have supported Ukraine up to this point in the war. As in the case of France during the War of Independence, the investments of Ukraine’s allies have not been wasted. It is the same financial and military support that has enabled Ukraine to continue its resistance to Russian aggression and launch a swift and surprise incursion into Russian territory. Continued support will also likely determine Ukraine’s success in the current offensive and the broader war. The latest act of resilience will provide additional fodder to those who continue to push for continued support for Ukraine and silence those supporters-in-name but in reality critics who have begun to call for appeasement toward Russia.
So far, the free world has not wavered in its support of Ukraine against Russian aggression and Putin’s drive to rebuild the Russian empire. Zelensky’s bold actions over the past week have given new hope to the Ukrainian people and the world, like Washington’s crossing of the Delaware or the raising of the U.S. Marines’ flag over Iwo Jima after a hard-fought victory.
In 1914, after several years of war, massive military losses, and a collapse of morale at the front and at home, Russian Tsar Nicholas II fled. A general strike by the civilian population and a mutiny in Petrograd caused the monarch’s authority to collapse. No one knows when Putin’s turning point might be.
