Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election over 21 months ago. Tomorrow marks four weeks since Joe Biden dropped out of the race. It is two weeks since Vice President Harris was named the Democratic Party’s likely nominee. The Democratic Party Convention begins on Monday.
Before and after Joe Biden’s demise, I was sure of two things: that Kamala Harris would bring a lot more stamina to the campaign trail, and that she would be much more vocal about a pro-choice position that could affect the outcome of the race. I was also pretty sure that Biden and Harris’ approval ratings would improve because someone was there touting wildly successful policies (remember, my screenshots are 5 hours before ET; this tweet was posted three hours after Biden’s demise and two hours after he endorsed Harris).
I was hoping that Kamala would break the “double hater” jam that has characterized the last two presidential campaigns (and up to this point, this one too).
Kamala’s approval ratings have risen (Biden’s are less dramatic, but they’re up maybe a percentage point so far).
And the newfound enthusiasm, especially among independent voters, suggests that the vice president may actually be able to break the “double hater” gridlock.
Still, I think far too many people are wallowing in their belief that Harris is slowly building a lead that will hold in November despite Trump’s bullshit attempts.
If we have learned one thing about the 2024 election, it is that normal predictions will not be accurate.
I still believe that a real black swan event is possible – something like a global war.
I also think that the unforeseen and widespread notoriety of Project 2025 will upend all normal political outcomes. Not only is it a post-Dobbs election (with abortion on the ballot in swing states like Arizona), but the sustained coverage of Project 2025 in both the political and popular press has put democracy on the ballot in a surprising way.
But the following six things are also quite possible, which could significantly influence the race in many ways.
Major protests at the DNC: Many of the people who urged Biden to resign, including Nancy Pelosi, were in favor of a snap primary. Instead, Biden and Harris managed to make that impossible within 24 hours of his departure. So instead of a deeply divisive convention, Harris can look forward to a love fest where the biggest questions are whether Jimmy Carter will pull off a video cameo and which surprise artists – including possibly Bruce Springsteen, Beyoncé or even Taylor Swift – will appear.
The very important caveat here, however, is that 30 or so uncommitted delegates can cause discord inside the Convention, and tens of thousands of protesters outside the Convention will cause even more discord. The latter is what worries me most. The protests themselves will draw attention back to the ongoing catastrophe in Gaza. But they are also an easy target for provocateurs and right-wing police to exploit.
Meaningful ceasefire in Israel – or further escalation: Faced with a potential escalation, negotiators have redoubled their efforts to broker some kind of ceasefire agreement, but there is reason to believe that Trump and Bibi will prevent this at all costs.
The potential for Gaza to dampen Democratic enthusiasm (or energize third-party candidates) has long been a theme, but few have fully mapped out how the right is exploiting it. So either way, this remains the most obvious tipping point for further discord among likely Democratic voters.
And all this happened before Iran made very concrete efforts to target Donald Trump.
Trump’s impeachment and/or conviction in September: According to the report, Trump is scheduled to be sentenced in his New York document falsification trial on September 18, and the parties in Trump’s January 6 case should begin discussing what to do with the Supreme Court immunity suit in early September.
Yesterday, Trump asked for sentencing to be delayed until after the election. Roger Parloff offered a nuanced assessment of this largely, but not entirely, unfounded request. Even if convicted, it is by no means clear that Juan Merchan would sentence Trump to prison.
Meanwhile, I’m not the only one who believes that Jack Smith asked for an extension of the last possible day to replace Trump before the election because he himself might be considering such a move (since I wrote this post, the Justice Department has decided to charge even more January 6 crime scene perpetrators with obstruction of justice). A new indictment could add his co-conspirators (which others predict) or change the crimes charged against Trump (my own suspicion). Either way, though, there will be a trial in the January 6 case in September, a trial that may reveal more details about how closely Trump’s team worked with the Proud Boys or the central role Trump played in bringing bodies into the Capitol.
The problem with both scenarios is that it is not at all clear whether the current rule – that Trump’s legal problems only make him more popular with the right – will hold, not least because independent voters will finally get involved. And even if they do, it will be against the background that Kamala is running as a prosecutor who has taken on gangsters like Trump in the past.
Another turbulent debate: Trump actually had a really bad debate in June, but a combination of asymmetrical press coverage and Trump normalization made up for it. If he has another debate like that, it could be a real drag on his campaign.
But it’s also not really guaranteed that Kamala will win a debate. Trump’s ability to reframe entire conversations is unmatched, and so far no moderator has been able to stop it. Additionally, for at least half of his presidential debate appearances, Trump has staged some sort of ruse (like hosting Tony Bobulinski or making a false claim about Biden’s role in the Mike Flynn investigation). Usually, these appearances fizzle out, but that’s not guaranteed.
Further deterioration of Trump’s mental state: Frankly, I think the extent to which Trump’s ramblings and complaints are new is wildly exaggerated. He’s always been that way. But I think the way he’s perceived has changed recently. That’s in part because his slapstick has become so boring that even Trump supporters have started tuning out (and occasionally leaving his events) in noticeable numbers. As Trump has tried in recent weeks to replace his big rallies with appearances at events with smaller or no audiences, he doesn’t have the drive he usually gets from audience admiration that he needs to pull off his appearances.
That could now change, as the Secret Service has developed a plexiglass booth to protect him outdoors.
And yet Kamala Harris has found ways to bring out Trump’s ugliest side, making it harder for him to control his anger.
As a result, the press and some Republicans began commenting on his mental capacity in ways they hadn’t since 2016.
Political violence by right-wing extremist parties: As I’ve argued here, Trump’s allies and Elon Musk have both been part of a transnational effort to stoke violence based on fearmongering about migrants. In the past, attempts by the right to stoke fear based on fabricated claims about caravans and the like have failed. And there’s always the possibility that Trump’s mob will riot in response to any of the above events, such as an impeachment.
As mentioned at the beginning of this post, it’s possible that Kamala Harris will continue to appeal to new voters and run in states (starting with North Carolina) where there hasn’t been a contest in years.
However, this only applies if the trends continue. And this year there are many reasons to doubt that.
