3 big things today, August 28, 2024

1. Corn and soybean futures fall overnight

Corn and soybean futures traded lower in overnight trading as investors focused on the potential of big harvests in the U.S.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture earlier this month raised its forecast for the domestic corn crop in the 2024-2025 marketing year from 15.1 billion bushels to 15.147 billion bushels.

Production in the current marketing year, which ends August 31, is estimated at 15.342 billion bushels, up from 13.651 billion last year, according to the USDA.

Soybean production for 2024-2025 is estimated at 4.589 billion bushels, above the July forecast of 4.435 billion bushels and the current year’s forecast of 4.165 billion bushels, the agency said.

Favorable weather throughout much of the growing season has led to improved production prospects.

At the recent ProFarmer Crop Tour, corn production was estimated at 14.979 billion bushels at a yield of 181.1 bushels per acre and soybean production was estimated at 4.74 billion bushels at a yield of 54.9 bushels per acre.

Sixty-five percent of the U.S. corn crop was rated good or excellent through Sunday, down from 67 percent the previous week but up from 56 percent a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.

Soybean ratings fell one percentage point to 67 percent “good” or “excellent,” but still an improvement from the 58 percent that received the top rating a year ago, the agency said.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 2¢ to $3.85 1/2 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean futures for November delivery fell 7 1/4 cents to $9.79 1/4 a bushel. Soybean meal lost $2.90 to $309.30 a short ton and soybean oil gained 0.07 cents to $40.49 a pound.

Wheat futures for December delivery rose 2¢ to $5.37 1/2 a bushel, while Kansas City futures were unchanged at $5.46 3/4 a bushel.

2. Brazil’s beef exports will reach records in 2024 and 2025

According to an attaché report from the USDA office in Brasilia, Brazilian beef exports will reach record levels in 2024 and 2025, due to strong demand from foreign buyers, a weakened national currency and “challenges” expected in competing export countries.

Brazil, the world’s largest exporter of beef, will ship 3.575 million tonnes of meat (equivalent to slaughter weight) this year, the agency said. In 2025, this amount will rise to 3.6 million tonnes.

Exports will account for 30% of the South American country’s total beef production.

“A relevant factor in favor of increased Brazilian beef production is the forecast of Brazil’s main competitors, including the United States, the European Union and Argentina, which, according to official data from the US Department of Agriculture, will reduce their production in 2024, opening up market opportunities for Brazil in third countries,” the ministry said.

Slaughter is expected to reach 48 million animals in 2024 before declining to 47.5 million animals next year, the report said.

Brazil is a major producer of corn and soybeans for animal feed and therefore has a competitive advantage in cattle production.

According to USDA data, corn production in the 2024-2025 marketing year is estimated at 127 million tons, up from 122 million tons last year. Soybean production is estimated at 169 million tons, up from 153 million last year.

The devalued Brazilian real has a significant impact on feed production, as the cattle industry relies on imports of vitamins, amino acids and other ingredients added to feed.

“Despite the impacts, the feed industry increased production across all feed categories in the first quarter of 2024,” the USDA said. “In addition, (according to the Brasilia office) these sources indicate unused capacity in the feed industry, meaning they could ramp up production if needed.”

3. Wildfire warnings have been issued in parts of western Nebraska

According to the National Weather Service, extreme drought warnings have been issued for western Nebraska and parts of Wyoming due to extreme dry conditions.

Wind speeds will be between 24 and 32 km/h this afternoon, with gusts of up to 48 km/h, the agency said in a report this morning.

In some areas of western Nebraska, relative humidity will fall below 15%, the NWS said.

“Any fire that starts is likely to spread quickly,” the agency said. “Outdoor fires are not recommended.”

In parts of central Illinois, morning showers will give way to extremely hot weather this morning. Heat indices will reach the upper 35 degrees this afternoon. Temperatures in the region will exceed 38 degrees tomorrow, according to the NWS.