Tuesday’s election in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota and South Carolina featured a number of closer-than-expected races that tested the support of former President Trump as he moves toward a rematch against President Biden.
But the biggest surprise of the night was an under-the-radar special election in Ohio. Elsewhere, Trump-backed candidates beat their challengers in the primaries, although at least one of them had far less breathing room than he might have hoped.
Here are five takeaways from Tuesday’s primary results:
Republicans prevent disaster in Ohio
It should have been a race without drama.
Instead, the special election for Ohio’s deep-red 6th Congressional District turned into a nail-biter in which the Democratic candidate far exceeded expectations.
The race was sparked by the resignation of former Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio), who resigned from office in January. The winner will serve the remainder of his term.
Johnson had represented the 6th District since 2011 and won re-election in 2022 by 35 points. Trump would have won the district in its current composition by 29 points.
But Republican Senator Michael Rulli defeated Democratic candidate Michael Kripchak by only about 9 percentage points, based on the latest vote count with more than 95 percent of the vote in the race, putting the Democratic candidate about 20 percent above expectations for the district.
Dave Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, attributed the surprising result to the “miserable” turnout in the district and the fact that Democrats have an advantage because particularly engaged voters are the most likely to vote.
While it was not a surprise defeat, Democrats have reason to be encouraged by the results. It is the last special election in which the party has done well – the last example being Rep. Tom Suozzi’s (DN.Y.) comfortable victory in February’s special election to fill the remainder of former Rep. George Santos’ (RN.Y.) term.
Ohio is still likely to be considered a safe state for Trump in November, but the high turnout among Democrats is a positive sign as Senator Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) faces a tough re-election battle.
McCarthy’s revenge tour gets off to a slow start
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) had his first opportunity to take revenge on those Republicans who voted to oust him in the primary race for Representative Nancy Mace (R-S.C.).
The two-term congresswoman has courted controversy on several occasions, including when she joined conservative lawmakers in ousting McCarthy as speaker, when she abandoned her criticism of Trump and supported his re-election, when she was accused of changing her mind on key issues and received negative publicity for high turnover in her congressional office.
All of this led to two challengers running in the primary: Catherine Templeton, a former South Carolina state official, and Bill Young, the head of a nonprofit organization. Templeton was considered the main challenger and ran to the right of Mace, accusing the incumbent of being a “con artist” who was not truly loyal to Trump.
An additional challenge for Mace in the three-way race was that she not only had to finish first but also secure a majority to avoid a runoff later this month. But Mace, who was endorsed by Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), comfortably secured a majority and was nearly 30 points ahead of Templeton in second place after the final vote count.
McCarthy-affiliated groups had tried to help Templeton oust Mace from office, part of a broader effort to oust the handful of Republicans responsible for his loss of office.
Her easy victory on Tuesday is another bruise for the Republican from California.
Divisions in the Republican Party clearly visible
Although Mace’s primary received more national attention in the run-up to the election, the race for her colleague, Rep. William Timmons (R) of South Carolina, was ultimately much closer, highlighting the divisions within the Republican Party.
Timmons, who has represented the state’s 4th Congressional District since 2019, has a consistently conservative record in the House and supported Trump. But he faced a challenge from the right in the primary from state Rep. Adam Morgan (R), who founded and leads the far-right Freedom Caucus in the state House of Representatives.
Timmons had the support of Trump, Johnson and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), as well as South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster (R-Republican). However, Morgan received support from several of the House’s most conservative members, including House Freedom Caucus Chairman Bob Good (R-Virginia) and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Carolina).
Morgan attacked Timmons as a moderate who was not conservative enough in cutting government spending and opposing aid to Ukraine. He also cited Timmons’ support for McCarthy as a motivation for his candidacy.
Timmons countered by emphasizing his conservative credentials and his ties to Trump.
The incumbent secured the nomination and is almost certain to secure another term in the red district, but only by a modest five percentage points, according to the latest vote count. That’s significantly closer than in 2022, when he prevailed in a four-candidate primary, and also shows how limited Trump’s support is.
A decisive race for the Senate seat is imminent
Another duel that will help decide which party controls the Senate in the next congressional session has been scheduled: Senator Jacky Rosen (D) and Republican Sam Brown are officially the candidates of their respective parties in Nevada.
Brown, a retired Army captain, was slated to run by Republican senators as a rival to Rosen, who faced minimal opposition in his bid for a second term.
Trump had stayed out of the fairly large field of candidates for the Republican nomination for most of the race, but on Sunday he expressed his last-minute support for Brown.
Brown defeated former U.S. Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter and former state Assembly member Jim Marchant, both of whom sought to promote their ties to the likely Republican presidential nominee and accused Brown of not being a true Trump supporter.
Gunter derided Brown as “Conman Brown” and claimed that Senate Republicans secured Trump’s support for Brown and dissuaded him from his own candidacy. However, both the Senate Republican campaign arm and Trump’s senior adviser Chris LaCivita rejected this claim.
Brown was already considered the frontrunner before Trump’s endorsement, and many votes were cast for him before Trump’s endorsement. However, the former president may view Brown as another candidate he supported who won the primary.
More importantly, Trump and Brown may need a good relationship as Republicans simultaneously try to make a run in Nevada, a key swing state in November.
Trump achieves success with his support campaigns
Trump spoke on all of the major elections ahead of the presidential election on Tuesday, continuing his nearly perfect track record of supporting members of Congress this year.
Besides Brown, Mace and Timmons, every Trump-backed candidate won their primaries in each of the major races by a larger margin than Timmons.
In the Republican primary for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, where he is running against Democratic Rep. Jared Golden, Trump-backed Rep. Austin Theriault (R), a former NASCAR driver, easily defeated fellow Rep. Mike Soboleski (R).
And in North Dakota, Republican Rep. Kelly Armstrong overwhelmingly defeated Lieutenant Governor Tammy Miller (R) in the primary to succeed outgoing Governor Doug Burgum (R). Armstrong was the early favorite, backed by Trump, North Dakota Senators Kevin Cramer (R) and John Hoeven (R), and the state party, but two-term incumbent Burgum had endorsed Miller.
Trump’s choice to succeed Armstrong as the only representative for the state of North Dakota, Julie Fedorchak, a member of the Public Service Commission, also won easily in a large field of participants.
Both Armstrong and Fedorchak are considered favorites to win the election in this ruby-red state.
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