The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year, with peak activity from August to October.
Debby’s impacts will extend into the Northeast by the end of the week
After stalling for days over the Southeast, Debby is now poised to move north, bringing significant flooding threats from the Mid-Atlantic to New England.
Last week it was Debby, will it be Ernesto this week?
Seven days after Debby made landfall for the first time as a hurricane in Florida and for the second time as a tropical storm in South Carolina, the National Hurricane Center issued its final warning for Debby on August 9. The storm brought historic rainfall from Florida to the Carolinas.
A week later, experts advise keeping an eye on the tropics.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical wave with a high rate of development. If it does indeed get a named storm, it will be called Ernesto.
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Tropical Storm Debby made its second landfall near Bulls Bay, South Carolina, just before 2 a.m. on Thursday, August 8. Sustained winds were 50 mph.
Debby first made landfall as a hurricane in Steinhatchee, Florida, around 7 a.m. on Monday, August 5. Sustained winds were 80 mph.
Here is the latest update from the National Hurricane Center in Miami as of August 11, 8:00 a.m.:
Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an extensive low pressure system about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as the system approaches and then moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Stakeholders on these islands should continue to monitor the track of this system, and parts of the area may require watches or warnings as early as later today. The system may approach parts of the Greater Antilles mid-week.
- The probability of occurrence within 48 hours is high at 70 percent.
- The probability of occurrence within 7 days is high at 90 percent.
Colorado State University predicts an 85 percent chance of hurricane activity through August 19
CSU meteorologists estimate that the probability of hurricane activity between August 6 and 19 is 85%.
“The main risk area for severe hurricanes is in the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles in early to mid-August.”
The next two-week forecast for the period August 20 to September 2 will be released on August 20.
On August 6, CSU updated its seasonal forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, reducing the predicted number of named storms from 25 to 23, but maintaining its forecast of 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone – that is, a tropical depression, a tropical storm or a hurricane – could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.
The colors indicate how likely the development of a system could be: yellow stands for a low probability, orange for a medium probability and red for a high probability.
The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical warnings until there is a named storm, but there is one exception.
“If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait to issue warnings, even if the system has not yet developed into a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Who is likely to be affected?
It is currently too early to judge whether the tropical wave in the Atlantic will have an impact on Florida or the USA.
Meteorologists urge all residents to continue to monitor the tropics and stay prepared. This advice is especially important during what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
NOAA updates forecast for 2024 hurricane season
NOAA has updated its forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, more than two months and four named storms after releasing its first forecast in May.
This season could be “one of the busiest ever,” NOAA announced on August 8, while slightly revising its forecast for the number of named storms, but increasing the chance of an above-average season to 90 percent.
Here is the latest forecast:
- Named storms: 17-24
- Hurricanes: 8-13
- Major hurricanes: 4-7
- Above normal season: 90%
- Almost normal season: 10%
Weather observations and warnings issued in Florida
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When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is September 10, with peak activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are meteorologists paying attention to now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that have passed near your city
Heavy rainfall forecast
What happens next?
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