The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a large tropical wave moving westward through the Atlantic Ocean. It has been officially upgraded to a potential Category 5 tropical cyclone as it shows better signs of organization with an extended low pressure system. It will likely impact the eastern Caribbean. The NHC expects it to become a tropical storm before reaching the Leeward Islands.
Tropical storm warnings are currently in effect.
Heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas are possible in the Leeward Islands and possibly Puerto Rico through Wednesday.
It is too early to determine if this system will have a direct impact on the lower 48 states. Since we are still several days away from this weather system approaching the United States, a lot can (and will) change. Please continue to monitor its path and any forecasts that are released for this tropical system. If it gets a name, it will be called “Ernesto,” so keep an eye out for that name!
Forecast models have shown signs of the development of this system, although a single model run should not be considered a forecast. There is a tendency for heavy rain from Guadeloupe to Puerto Rico. The American model (GFS) is a particularly southerly favored track that does not predict a good situation for Hispaniola.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 2- and 3-week tropical outlook shows an active phase of tropical development. There will be a broad area of favorable conditions in the western Atlantic over the next 2 weeks.
There is a >40% chance of tropical formations in this region during the week of August 14-20. In week 3, the most favorable area is over the Atlantic in areas with seasonally warm sea surface temperatures. According to the CPC, the “The forecasts of the paths of individual cyclones are too unpredictable at this point in time to make predictions.”
Tropical systems usually develop here in August.
Activity in the Atlantic often increases significantly in August and continues through September. All it takes is one storm to hit you. Please keep an eye on the weather and continue to make preparations before a storm is even forecast.
As a reminder: 2024 is expected to be an above-average tropical activity year due to a La Niña that forms during the peak of hurricane season in September. It only takes one storm to hit you, and you need to prepare before the storm arrives!
