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National Hurricane Center tracks potential Tropical Cyclone No. 5

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The National Hurricane Center is tracking a disturbance that is moving rapidly westward and could become the next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The NHC released a tropical weather forecast for potential Tropical Cyclone No. 5 on Sunday and said in a Monday morning warning that the system was expected to continue moving “at somewhat reduced forward speed” over the next few days.

The disturbance is forecast to move across parts of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening.

Currently, maximum sustained winds are around 30 mph with stronger gusts. However, some strengthening is forecast over the next few days. Later on Monday, the disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression and become a tropical storm as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands: Tropical storm warning

The NHC announced in a 5:00 a.m. ET alert Monday that a tropical storm warning is in effect for the following:

  • Guadeloupe
  • Saint Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda and Anguilla
  • Saba and St. Eustatius
  • St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
  • Saint Martin
  • British Virgin Islands
  • US Virgin Islands
  • Puerto Rico
  • Vieques
  • Culebra

According to the NHC, a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are generally possible in the danger area within 48 hours.

Storm tracker for the Atlantic

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Potential tropical cyclone Five spaghetti models

The figures show a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are the same. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best performing models for its forecasts.

By Olivia

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