Which SEC teams are ranked too high and which are ranked too low?
Which SEC teams are ranked too high and which are ranked too low?
- The preseason rankings suggest that five playoff spots may not be enough for the SEC. Can this super conference qualify for six?
- The rankings show that both the SEC and Big Ten have national championship contenders, but the SEC has more depth.
- Will the Big 12 and ACC be single-bid playoff leagues? That depends in part on Notre Dame.
Coaches think very similarly to sports journalists – at least when it comes to ranking the teams in the preseason.
The same 25 teams are ranked in the US LBM Coaches’ preseason poll and the AP Top 25 poll. The order of the teams is also nearly identical. The top seven teams are ranked the same in each poll: Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Ole Miss and Notre Dame.
The other polls are also almost in step. Nine SEC teams are ranked in the top 20 in every poll:
∎ No. 1 Georgia
∎ No. 4 Texas
∎ No. 5 Alabama
∎ No. 6 Ole Miss
∎No. 11 Missouri
∎ No. 12/13 (Coach/AP) LSU
∎ No. 15 Tennessee
∎ No. 16 Oklahoma
∎ No. 20 Texas A&M
Here are some observations after evaluating these surveys:
SEC secures early lead over Big Ten
Like the SEC, the Big Ten has several national championship contenders, but in terms of conference depth, the B1G is more similar to the Big 12 than the SEC.
Six Big Ten teams are ranked. Iowa (number 25) is at the bottom of every poll. For comparison, the Big 12 has five ranked teams. However, the Big Ten shows its strength as a “Super Two” conference at the top with four top 10 teams.
The SEC’s player density makes the path to the playoffs more difficult for its teams, but it also increases the conference’s chance of overtaking the Big Ten and securing the most playoff spots.
Each poll has six SEC teams in the top 13 and eight in the top 16.
The SEC goes deeper than the B1G.
Important September games involving SEC teams
A handful of games in the first four weeks of the season will reveal which teams are playoff contenders and which are just pretenders.
Among them (the ranking comes from the trainer survey):
∎ No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 14 Clemson (Atlanta), August 31
∎ No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 20 Texas A&M, Aug. 31
∎ No. 12 LSU vs. No. 23 Southern Cal (Las Vegas), September 1
∎ No. 4 Texas vs. No. 8 Michigan, September 7
∎ No. 15 Tennessee vs. No. 16 Oklahoma, September 21
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Memphis and Boise State lead the Group of Five playoff race
No Group of Five teams are ranked, but the 12-team playoff format guarantees a spot for a team not in the SEC, Big Ten, ACC or Big 12.
The favorites for that spot are Memphis and Boise State of the Mountain West from the AAC. The selection committee will decide which non-Power Four conference champion is most deserving of a playoff spot.
Boise State’s schedule offers opportunities to stand out. The Broncos play No. 3 Oregon and also have games against former Pac-12 members Washington State and Oregon State.
Memphis’ game against Florida State will be crucial. The Tigers don’t need to beat FSU to make the playoffs, but if they were competitive in this game, it would show what Memphis can do.
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How Notre Dame and Big Ten impact Big 12 and ACC
No. 10 FSU is the only team from the ACC or Big 12 ranked in the top 10, showing that each conference still has ground to make up to qualify for multiple playoff teams.
Here are factors that would speak in favor of the ACC and Big 12:
1. Notre Dame fails and does not accept an offer.
2. The Big Ten will receive no more than three bids in total. No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon and No. 9 Penn State have favorable schedules. Michigan will have a tougher time, especially if it loses to Texas in Week 2.
3. The runner-up in the Big 12 and ACC has suffered only one loss in the conference championship game.
Combine those three factors, and the ACC or Big 12 would likely qualify multiple teams.
But if Notre Dame receives a bid, the Big Ten has four qualified teams, and the runners-up in the ACC and Big 12 have at least two losses, those leagues could be downgraded to single-bid status.
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Could the SEC qualify more than five teams? Possibly
Technically, the SEC can qualify up to eight playoff teams. Four spots are reserved for other conferences. However, the Big Ten will certainly have multiple qualifiers, and perhaps the ACC and Big 12 as well. Notre Dame is considered a contender for at-large participation.
I have always maintained that five bids is realistically about the maximum the SEC can afford.
But consider this: All nine preseason ranked SEC teams could finish with no more than two losses. Yes, that’s mathematically possible – nine ranked teams that are 10-2 or better.
While this assumption is extremely far-fetched, it is much more reasonable to assume that the SEC would end up with, say, six teams with no more than two losses.
What then? Would the SEC accept more than five offers, or would a two-loss SEC team be left out? Depth would be a factor, and depth debates usually favor the SEC.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s SEC columnist. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
Also listen to his podcast SEC Football Unfiltered., and newsletter, SEC Football Unfiltered. Subscribe to read all his columns.
