Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to strengthen as it approaches Bermuda
Meteorologists expect Tropical Storm Ernesto to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane over the next week.
A tropical wave in the western Atlantic strengthened into Tropical Storm Ernesto on Monday afternoon.
According to the latest warning from the National Hurricane Center, Ernesto is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday morning and could even become a major hurricane by Friday.
While most spaghetti models predict Ernesto will be on its way to Bermuda by the weekend, dangerous surf and rip current conditions could affect Florida and the east coast of the United States, including Volusia and Flagler counties, according to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.
The formation of the latest storm came just over a week after Hurricane Debby made landfall at Big Bend in Florida on Monday, August 5.
AccuWeather meteorologists said Ernesto has the potential to “develop into a major hurricane for a period of time before targeting Bermuda.”
A major hurricane is a storm with sustained winds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h), making it a Category 3 or higher storm.
Here is the latest information on the storm’s potential impacts on Volusia and Flagler counties:
What impact could Tropical Storm Ernesto have on Volusia-Flagler?
As of 5 a.m. Tuesday, the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.2 degrees north and longitude 61.3 degrees west.
Ernesto is moving west at about 20 miles per hour. A west-northwest motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next day, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Ernesto is forecast to cross parts of the Leeward Islands this morning and pass near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this evening. After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is expected to turn north over the western Atlantic Ocean.
Maximum sustained winds will be around 40 miles per hour, with stronger gusts.
For Volusia-Flagler residents, Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to return to the Atlantic and remain well east of Florida, according to the NWS’ Tuesday forecast.
“Of course, it all depends on the wind direction, so the exact impacts are not yet entirely clear, but we are definitely expecting stronger and rougher waves, more dangerous seas and a high risk of rip currents at least through the weekend,” said Melissa Watson, a meteorologist with the NWS in Melbourne.
“As far as the probability of rain is concerned, according to the current forecast we assume that it will be more of a maritime event.”
According to the NWS, increasing swells will create an increased risk for rough surf and dangerous rip currents late this week and into the weekend.
Dangerous boating conditions also exist offshore, and boaters may also encounter dangerous conditions near inlets, particularly during outgoing tides due to prolonged swells.
More rain showers, thunderstorms and extreme heat are expected daily this week
Meanwhile, isolated thunderstorms with occasional to frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 centimeters may be expected Tuesday afternoon, according to a NWS hazardous weather forecast released Tuesday.
Afternoon temperatures on Tuesday will rise to 35 to 40 degrees. The combination of temperature and humidity will produce peak heat index values between 40 and 41 degrees. A heat advisory was in effect until 6 p.m. Tuesday for Flagler County and other areas in the Northeast and in Florida and Georgia.
If you are outdoors, make sure you drink plenty of fluids and take frequent breaks in the sun, preferably in an air-conditioned building.
The hot and humid weather will continue until mid-week and the forecast continues to predict moderate to high temperatures.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected every afternoon through at least Thursday before drier air moves into the region towards the end of the week. The stronger thunderstorms will be accompanied by gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes.
From Friday and into the weekend, prolonged swells will produce rough surf and a high risk of rip currents. Increasing seas will create dangerous conditions for small boats offshore.
Conditions near inlets can also be dangerous for small boats, especially when the tide is out.
Daytona Beach Weather Radar
What is the extended weather forecast for Daytona Beach?
Wednesday: 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Sunny, with highs around 92 and nighttime lows around 77. Heat index values as high as 103.
Thursday: 50% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms, especially after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with highs around 30°C and nighttime lows around 25°C.
Friday: After 2 p.m. there is a 30 percent chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with highs of around 30 degrees and nighttime lows of around 24 degrees.
Saturday: Sunny, with highs of around 30 degrees and lows at night of around 23 degrees.
Sunday: 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, high around 90 and nighttime low around 76.
Monday: 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, high around 93 degrees.
What is the extended weather forecast for Palm Coast?
Wednesday: 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with highs around 91 and nighttime lows around 79. Heat index values as high as 109.
Thursday: 30% chance of rain, thunderstorms are also possible after 11 a.m. Mostly sunny, maximum temperature around 30 °C, nighttime minimum temperature around 25 °C.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with highs of around 30 degrees and nighttime lows of around 25 degrees.
Saturday: Sunny, with highs of around 30 degrees and nighttime lows of around 25 degrees.
Sunday: 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, highs around 90 and nighttime lows around 78.
Monday: 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, high around 92 degrees.
