KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — It is three years since the Taliban came to power Afghanistan. They have gone from rebellion to rule, their interpretation imposed of Islamic law and tried to substantiate their claim to legitimacy.
Although the Taliban are not internationally recognized as the official rulers of the country, they enjoy high-level meetings with major regional powers such as China and Russia. They even participated in UN-sponsored talks, while Afghan women and civil society a place at the table refusedIt was a triumph for the Taliban, who saw themselves as the only true representatives.
There is no domestic challenge to their rule and no interest abroad in supporting such a challenge. Wars in Ukraine And Gaza The international community is now paying attention and Afghanistan no longer poses the same terrorist threat as it once did. But challenges remain.
Here are five things you should know about the Taliban in power.
Culture wars and rewards
The Taliban supreme leader sits at the top of a pyramid-shaped government system as a paragon of virtue. On one side are mosques and clergy. On the other side is the Kabul administration, which implements the decisions of the clergy and meets with foreign politicians.
“There are different levels of extremism, and the Taliban are in an uneasy coalition of ruling hardliners and political pragmatists. It has them in a culture war“ said Javid Ahmad, a nonresident fellow at the Middle East Institute.
The most controversial policies are unlikely to be reversed as long as supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada is in power. And supreme leaders do not retire or step down. They lead until they die.
It is wishful thinking that differing opinions are enough to divide the Taliban, said Ibraheem Bahiss of the Crisis Group’s South Asia program. “The Taliban are united and will remain a political force for many years to come. They rule as one group, they fight as one group.”
To maintain cohesion and ensure discipline, experienced Taliban moved from the battlefield to the bureaucracy and took over top positions in government and provinces.
“You have to reward them for playing a significant role in the insurgency,” says Ahmad. Other perks can include free reign in running a province, or permission to have a third or fourth wife, a new pickup truck, a share of customs duties or the keys to a house.
Governing the country
Bahiss described this as “the strongest Afghan government in modern times. They can give orders down to the village level.”
officer keep the country running and are more likely to have formal or technical training. But the Taliban who run civilian institutions have no idea how to run such institutions. “I got their qualifications from God,” Ahmad said.
The Taliban’s legitimacy to govern does not come from the Afghans, but from their interpretation of religion and culture, says Leena Rikkila Tamang of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
If a government is defined by the Trust and consent of citizens, recognition by international powers and legitimacy through processes such as elections, then the Taliban do not meet the requirements to govern, she said.
Leave the light on
Afghanistan’s Business has weakened. In 2023, foreign aid still amounted to around 30 percent of the country’s GDP.
The UN has funneled at least $3.8 billion to international aid agencies over the past three years. The United States remains the largest donor, sending more than $3 billion in aid since the Taliban took power. But the U.S. regulator tasked with monitoring the money says much of it is taxed or diverted.
“The further the money gets from the source, the less transparency there is,” said Chris Borgeson, deputy inspector general for audits and inspections at the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction.
The Taliban also collect high taxes. In 2023, they collected around $2.96 billion. But that is not much in a country with enormous and complex needsand the Taliban lack the means to stimulate the economy.
The central bank cannot print money. Cash is printed abroad. Interest transactions are prohibited because Islam prohibits interest, and banks do not lend. The Taliban cannot borrow money because they are not recognized as a government, and international banking is cut off.
Natural disasters and the river of Afghans on the run The pressure on Pakistan to return home has shown that Afghanistan is dependent on foreign aid to meet basic needs.
It is a big risk if the international community cannot provide such assistance in the future. “We know that Afghanistan will receive less money from the international community in the future,” said Muhammad Waheed, the World Bank’s lead economist for Afghanistan.
Another heavy blow to the economy was the Ban on the Taliban on women’s education and most jobs, which means that half of the Afghan population is Expenses and taxes this can strengthen the economy.
In addition, the Taliban Anti-drug policy “has destroyed the livelihood of thousands of farmers,” said Bahiss, warning: “Just because the population is complacent now, it will not stay that way.”
Diplomacy and the global stage
Afghanistan is a small country among giants, said Bahiss, and there is a consensus in the region that a stable Afghanistan is better.
But in order to enable the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets and the lifting of sanctions, the support of the West, especially the United States, is crucial.
The Taliban’s connections to China and Russia are important because they are permanent members of the UN Security Council. They also have seats in the UN Credentialing Committeethat decides whether a government is denied or granted legitimacy.
Currently, the Gulf states are working with the Taliban to protect themselves. “Qatar wants to be seen as a leader in the mediation efforts and the United Arab Emirates has taken on this role, particularly through Supporting international aviation”, said Bahiss.
A meeting this year between the leader of the A US bounty awaits the United Arab Emirates and a Taliban officer The numerous attacks highlighted the growing global divide over how to deal with the Taliban.
The Taliban are keen to highlight their ability to act as a government and to show that there is peace and services in the country, says Weeda Mehran, a lecturer in international relations at Britain’s University of Exeter.
Although Afghanistan Dozens of media lost With the Taliban crackdown, the country’s rulers have recognized the impact of social media to normalize their approach to Islamic law, and Arabic-language messages are important in this regard.
“It is a watered-down and whitewashed portrayal of what is happening in the country,” Mehran said.
Safe, but not without danger
The Taliban have secured Afghanistan with checkpoints, armored vehicles and hundreds of thousands of fighters. But the country is not safe, especially for women and minorities, as it has caused civilian casualties through suicide bombings and other attacks consist.
The terrorist militia “Islamic State” has repeatedly attacked the predominantly Shiite Dasht-e-Barchi District in Kabul. Police did not confirm any attacks or casualty figures. They told the media that investigations were ongoing but did not say whether anyone had been brought to justice.
A newer phenomenon is the Fear of Afghan women than the Taliban Enforcement of regulations on clothing, work and travel and the obligation to be accompanied by a male guardian when travelling.
“The message to the mainstream media is that everything is fine and that there is good security in Afghanistan under the Taliban,” Mehran said. “My argument would be: Well, whose security are we talking about here?”
