How accurate are long-term weather forecasts from farmers’ calendars?
Both The Farmer’s Almanac and The Old Farmer’s Almanac use “secret” formulas for making long-range weather forecasts. Here’s what the experts think.
Pack out your winter clothes and get your snow shovels and umbrellas ready, because a mix of rain and snow is expected again this winter. The Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a season of “rapidly successive storms that will bring both rain and snow, with little respite in between.” The publication recently released its extended winter 2025 weather forecast report, predicting a “wet winter storm” for the coming months.
“It’s definitely looking more wet than white in many areas,” said Sandi Duncan, editor of the Farmers’ Almanac. “Obviously, depending on where you live, it could be more white than wet, but we’re focused on the wet winter ahead.”
The climate phenomenon known as La Niña, which is expected to occur between September and November according to a recent forecast by the Climate Prediction Center, could lead to a warmer-than-normal winter in much of the country.
Average or above average temperatures are forecast for New England, the Northeast, the Southern Plains, the Southeast and the Atlantic Coast.
Farmers’ Almanac weather forecasts and predictions for New York
While a wet and mild winter is expected across much of the country, the coldest temperatures are forecast in the Great Lakes region, not far from New York. The Empire State is in the Northeast and New England, where the Farmers’ Almanac predicts above-average rainfall and near-above-average temperatures.
Snow will be most common in inland and mountainous regions, the report says, while sleet and rain will be more common near the coast, especially near and along the Interstate 95 corridor.
The coldest outbreak of the season is expected in late January to early February, when frigid arctic air is expected to bring a sharp drop in temperatures across the country. As this very cold air blows across the Great Lakes, heavy snow showers and snow squalls are expected, bringing heavy snowfall east of the lakes.
In late January, much of the country is expected to be warned of a “very active storm” that could bring strong and gusty winds and heavy precipitation—“large amounts of snow, rain, sleet and ice (depending on where you live) could fall,” the almanac says.
In the northern, northeastern and central U.S., winter cold is expected to last longer than usual. “So it looks like it’s going to feel like a longer winter, even if it’s a little warmer in certain areas that normally get more snow,” Duncan said.
Weather in Rochester, NY: Average snowfall
Last winter, Rochester received 52 inches of snow, with the snowiest month, January, accounting for nearly half of the season’s snowfall: 25 inches at Frederick Douglass Greater Rochester International Airport, according to the National Weather Service in Buffalo. The average snowfall for the season is about 1 inch.
Rochester’s snowiest season of the past two decades was 2002-03, when 135.2 inches of snow fell. The snowiest season of the past 20 years was 2022-23, when 50.4 inches of snow fell, according to the weather service. The snowiest winter on record was 1932-33, when only 29.2 inches of snow fell.
While Rochester often sees snow flurries as early as October, the first measurable snowfall of the season usually occurs in November. Snow can fall here as late as May, but this is unusual.
Includes reporting by Mike Snider, USA Today senior reporter.
