For the first time since Harris’ nomination, the Bitcoin price on Polymarket has decoupled from former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 election.
Trump has been leading the crypto prediction market Polymarket since April, with ratings reaching as high as 72% shortly after his assassination attempt. However, his chances began to decline after Biden dropped out of the race.
When the Bitcoin price reached $70,000 and Trump’s chances continued to decline, the Bitcoin price also dropped. This led many to believe that the Bitcoin price after Trump’s appearance at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference correlated with Trump’s chances of returning to the White House.
Overnight, Trump’s odds fell to 49%, the lowest since May, while Harris’ odds rose to 50% for the first time since announcing her campaign after a period of sustained momentum. At the same time, Bitcoin rejected the $54,500 support level for the second time and is currently trading around $57,200 at press time. The chart below shows Bitcoin price over the past month (candlestick charts) alongside Trump’s Polymarket odds (blue).
On the non-cryptocurrency prediction market PredictIt, Harris has a 10-point lead over Trump. Harris’ momentum is riding on a series of successful campaign rallies in swing states and her choice of Tim Walz as vice president. While both candidates have yet to confirm their Bitcoin stance, Walz appears to favor tighter regulations on cryptocurrencies, which could potentially put him on the side of Senator Warren’s approach to the industry. However, Mark Cuban recently commented that the vice president’s political leanings have little impact on the president’s policies.
“The vice president’s political views will be a polite topic of conversation during the campaign, but they are completely irrelevant.”
If Harris continues to lead in the polls ahead of November, it will be interesting to see if Bitcoin regains its correlation with Trump’s chances or continues to rise. Should Trump regain the lead on Polymarket, it could also lead to positive price movement for Bitcoin. However, Fox News has also reported on a new Crypto4Harris campaign, and crypto super PAC Fairshake has also announced that it will donate to both Republicans and Democrats who have declared their support for the industry. The changes suggest that cryptocurrencies may become a bipartisan issue in the upcoming election.
