DraftKings Network analyst Geoff Ulrich analyzes a major special offer for NHL players offered at the DraftKings Sportsbook.
As the 2024–25 NHL season begins, there are many milestones to keep an eye on, but none bigger than the one Alex Ovechkin will be aiming for. Right now—this very moment as I write this sentence—Ovechkin is 42 goals short of becoming the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer and overtaking Wayne Gretzky, who holds the current record with 894 goals.
These records were once considered unattainable, but the recovery of the league’s goalscoring charts has made them more attainable for the modern player.
With all eyes on Ovechkin this season, DraftKings has given bettors the opportunity to bet on this milestone with a SPECIAL REGULAR SEASON PLAYER MARKET:
Ovechkin’s pursuit of that record will make for one of the most notable news stories of the season, and bettors now have a chance to get in on the action.
Let’s break this down and see if this prop is worth chasing in Ovechkin.
Can Alex Ovechkin score 42 goals next year?
Records aside, this bet asks us a simple question. Can the Great Eight score 42 goals in his 39th season with the Capitals?
There’s no doubt that the numbers are against Ovechkin. The Russian’s pace has dropped off considerably in recent seasons, as he has dropped from 0.64 goals per game in 2021-22 to a career-low 0.39 goals per game in 2023-24. However, even with the drop in performance, there are some mitigating circumstances to consider before we write off this bet.
First, Ovechkin finished the season better than he started last year. In his final 36 games, the winger scored an incredible 23 goals. Over a full season, that would have equated to 52 goals. Second, Ovechkin didn’t start last season with the goal of breaking Gretzky’s record. The Capitals were still considered borderline contenders in the East and somehow managed to squeeze into the playoffs, where they were annihilated by the Rangers in the first round.
Right now, the Capitals have +6000 odds to win the Stanley Cup and -190 odds to miss the playoffs at DraftKings Sportsbook. With the Capitals likely going through a transition/rebuilding year, Ovechkin and the organization can focus more on the record and getting Ovechkin over the 894-goal hurdle.
Final verdict
At +1000, the implied probability of this bet is around 9.09%, meaning this bet needs to succeed at least 10% of the time or more to be profitable in the long run. Ovechkin’s goal rate may have slipped, but given the attention this record is sure to attract and his effectiveness in the second half of last season, I’d say the actual probability of him accomplishing this feat is quite a bit higher than these opening odds suggest.
Regardless, the closer we get to the season, the more attention this bet will get, I think. Since Ovechkin is so popular and people want to be a part of history, don’t be surprised if these starting odds are significantly lower by preseason.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and sometimes play the games I advise on using my personal account. While I have expressed my personal opinion on the games and strategies mentioned above, they do not necessarily reflect the opinion(s) of DraftKings. and do not represent any assurance that a particular strategy will guarantee success. All c
