- Russia is using expensive reconnaissance drones to direct fire on Ukrainian forces and thus slow their advance.
- But experts say Ukraine is increasingly able to use much cheaper drones to stop them.
With its cheap drones, Ukraine is increasingly able to prevent Russia from collecting information on combat results that it needs to attack the Ukrainian armed forces, say war experts.
The Washington DC-based think tank Institute for the Study of War said in an update earlier this month that Ukrainian drone operators appeared to be becoming increasingly adept at stopping longer-range Russian reconnaissance drones in flight.
Riley Bailey, a Russia analyst at ISW, told Business Insider that there is footage of Ukrainian forces using cheap, off-the-shelf first-person-view (FPV) drones to intercept more expensive Russian reconnaissance drones.
He called it a “remarkable” development, especially since there was no evidence that Russian forces had done the same.
He said this suggests that “Ukrainian forces may have a technological advantage – but have not yet deployed it on a large scale.” But the capability has potential, particularly given the challenges Ukraine faces.
Ukraine’s strained air defenses have given Russian forces an opening, allowing them to freely deploy high-quality unmanned systems to gain a better picture of battlefield intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance (ISR).
Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, wrote in a May analysis that “Orlan-10 UAVs are now flying far and wide over the front lines.” He added that the increasing presence of this type of ISR drone “allows their troops to precisely detect and destroy targets behind the front lines” using rocket artillery and tactical ballistic missiles.
These drones can also threaten advancing Ukrainian forces by relaying targeting information to troops with long-range tactical fire units, who can then repel attacks.
Bailey said Russia’s reconnaissance drones play “a very important role” in helping Russia decide which Ukrainian targets to fire on. The drones inform artillery units where troops and equipment are concentrated and where attacks are planned, allowing the artillery “to play a very effective role in repelling those attacks.”
Russia took advantage of the limitations of Ukraine’s air defenses and deployed more reconnaissance drones, even sending them deep into Ukraine, according to ISW. This probably enabled Russia to improve the accuracy of its attacks.
Ukraine does not have enough air defense systems to shoot down all Russian reconnaissance drones, said a Ukrainian military expert. Nor does it necessarily want to spend on expensive interceptor missiles for drones such as the Orlan-10, which are said to cost between $87,000 and $120,000.
This makes the strategy of cheap FPV drones all the more important.
Bailey said: “If Ukraine can use a very cheap FPV drone to target and destroy that reconnaissance element, that is a relatively inexpensive way to destroy the reconnaissance drones, conserve the anti-aircraft missiles, and use those systems to target more important and significant air targets.”
If Ukraine could conduct large-scale interception operations using cheap FPV drones, it could weaken Russia’s capabilities while conserving the much more expensive and limited air defense systems it receives from its partners and using them instead against “more expensive and significant Russian air targets,” ISW said.
ISW said this type of innovation has the potential to ease pressure on Ukraine’s air defense systems, which the country says are inadequate. Ukraine has said it needs additional systems from partner countries to protect itself from Russian attacks.
This innovation also reflects Ukraine’s broader efforts to find solutions to Russia’s material advantages.
Drones, particularly cheap hobbyist quadcopters, were used more frequently in Russia’s war in Ukraine than in any other conflict in history, with both sides using them to target soldiers, equipment and cities and to gather intelligence to deploy more powerful weapons.
Both Russia and Ukraine are constantly trying to develop new types and uses of drones and find new ways to thwart each other’s drone attacks.
Bailey said that “both Russian and Ukrainian forces are seeking to test and deploy new technological capabilities that give them an advantage on the battlefield and then build on those capabilities before their adversary can do the same or quickly launch countermeasures against those new capabilities.”
He said both sides have increased the frequency with which they replace each other’s FPV drones with their own FPV drones.
“We’ve seen that quite frequently. I wouldn’t say it’s an incredibly common occurrence, but we’re definitely seeing it across the entire front on both sides.”
Some drone battles in Ukraine have been compared to air battles in World War I.
Bailey said Ukraine’s increasing capabilities were “a clear indication of a key element of the evolution of the war in Ukraine, namely this race between attack and defence.”
He said that Ukrainians have often been ahead of Russia in terms of drone technology, including being the first to deploy FPV drones on a large scale along the front lines, “and the Russian forces have had to catch up.”
He said: “One of the theories of success for Ukraine is to adapt as quickly as possible, to develop new technological innovations and to expand the production of these technological innovations, and then to use them on a large scale along the front line at critical moments to gain an advantage and offset the material and personnel advantages of the Russian armed forces.”
