In terms of noise, the Democrats may have had the upper hand over the Republicans as their four-day convention in Chicago concluded and Vice President Kamala Harris was officially nominated as the nominee along with Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota. One speaker after another attacked the Grand Old Party and, above all, former President Donald Trump. At every turn, the Trump team must have regretted not having Joe Biden on board on November 5.
A better scenario for the Trump team would have been if Biden had done a little better in the first debate on June 27 and stayed in Chicago while Democrats tore each other apart at the convention. None of that happened. Biden quickly dropped out, endorsed Harris, and the money started flowing. And then a tumultuous convention not only featured the best speakers, but also laid the groundwork for the former president’s worst sides to come out.
Rumor has it that Trump is already angry about what the Clintons and Obamas had to say. But not many Democrats are losing sleep over it. While there are those in the party who want to believe that the Chicago party was the best thing that ever happened, others suggest caution.
Just hours before independent presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. announced his withdrawal from the race and his support for Trump, former President Bill Clinton took the convention stage to remind Democrats of a word they know but that has somehow gotten lost in the euphoria: complacency.
Brutal, tough business
“We’ve lost more than one election when we thought it couldn’t happen because people got distracted by false issues or overconfidence. This is a brutal, tough business. I want you to be happy… But you should never underestimate your opponent, and these people are really good at distracting us, creating doubt, creating buyer’s remorse… We have to be tough,” warned the 78-year-old former president, who is still considered the best communicator.
President Clinton should know better. Eight years ago, former First Lady Hillary Clinton lost an election that was blamed on Democrats taking poll after poll that put Clinton ahead of Trump for granted, only to be disappointed on election night in 2016. And that’s exactly what leaders like President Clinton are warning Democrats and the Harris campaign about. While there is no poll yet indicating a post-convention “surge,” national polls and polls in swing states show Harris will close Biden’s deficit to Trump and take a narrow lead.
Beyond what former President Clinton had to say, the Democrats have a tough task ahead of them, and the Kennedy factor is their latest problem. Kennedy Jr.’s support for Trump does not mean that all of his supporters will follow him, and much depends on the extent to which the Democrats and Harris succeed in influencing this group.
Moreover, even within the Republican camp, Trump was warned to be careful in choosing his offers of support.
With 70 days to go until the November election, almost anything is possible. Harris has not opened up an unassailable lead. All national and swing state polls showing Harris tied or slightly ahead of Trump are within the margin of error.
Much emphasis is being placed on the next presidential debate on September 10, and the Trump campaign is constantly reminded that Kamala Harris is not Joe Biden, given her prosecutorial background and debating skills. But Trump will say whatever comes to mind, knowing full well that fact-checking by networks and individuals will come later.
The author is an experienced journalist who has reported on North America and the United Nations from Washington DC
