There’s a project called MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter that uses hit dispersion and batted ball data – launch angles, ballpark factors and exit velocity – to determine the expected outcome for each game. A month and a half ago Sports illustrated published an article arguing that the Twins should overtake the Guardians at the top of the division based on this project. At the time, the Twins were 4.5 games behind. They have since narrowed the gap to just two games, with a few recent bullpen failures making the difference between that deficit and a tie.
Fast forward to this week, and the folks at Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter have released an update on the current season. It tells an interesting story.
As you can see, the project takes into account both “lucky wins” (where a few low xBA bloop hits resulted in a narrow victory) and “unlucky losses” (where hard-hit balls with high xBA regularly landed the fielders’ gloves).
The Twins were one of the unluckiest teams in baseball; the Royals had neutral luck; and the Guardians were lucky all season. In 2024, the Guardians had more luck than the Twins in 39 games.
That’s astonishing, but it tells a pretty compelling story. It suggests that the Twins should be several games ahead in the division, if at all. Let’s take a closer look.
The Guardians have nearly 40 wins that count as “lucky” under this model, the most in baseball by a double-digit margin. They consistently hit the winning hits when it matters, piranha style. They also have no “unlucky” losses, with just eight on the season, the fewest in baseball. This is counterintuitive and suggests a serious regression that should have happened already, but the “luck” is still there.
The Twins, on the other hand, have 23 “unlucky” losses, where their results with runners in scoring position are inexplicably bad despite hitting well overall, and where guys like Trevor Larnach sink the ball all game and come away with 0-fers. The Twins also have just 14 “lucky” wins, both of which are among the worst in baseball.
Here is an example of an unfortunate loss for the Twins. In the August 19 game against the Padres, the Twins lost by two points, but based on batted ball data, the Padres would have won only 17% of the time. In that game Edouard Julien came to bat with two batters at the plate and hit a ball with an xBA of .800 that was probably a home run; it landed in the glove. Had it landed the way the odds suggested it would, the Twins would have won. In the same game, Julien hit another ball with an xBA of .730 for one out, and Max Kepler lost a hit with an xBA of .720.
Here’s an example of a lucky Guardians win on August 14. In this case, the Guardians won 6-1, but based on the game’s batted ball data, they should have won only 36% of the time. 
In this game, Cody Bellinger was at bat with two batters on base. The ball left the bat at 98 MPH on a line drive launch angle. The ball had an xBA of .880 and could have scored two points had the expected outcome occurred. In the entire game, the Guardians had 10 batted balls where they were lucky, while the Cubs only scored five.
These are just two of many examples of probabilities suggesting different outcomes, and to the Twins’ detriment. Overall, the Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter model says the Twins should be comfortably leading the division with just over a month of play left. Perhaps they should be on their way to 100 wins. While it’s easy to focus on the negative, it’s important to have a clear view when results suggest positives are deserved.
Now for a few necessary caveats. First, “luck” has many other names in baseball. What we call “luck” here can also be called “clutch hitting,” however skeptical we may be that this exists as a sustainable skill. We could call Emmanuel Clase “luck” here; he’s a crucial closer and simply the brightest symbol of a crucial bullpen that’s simply better than the Twins’. Great defense (and especially great defensive positioning, even in the post-shift era) could also be called “luck” here; the Guardians play excellent defense. Finally, “luck,” as this model sees it, can really be “using the large portion of the field” or any other cliche you prefer as code for the ability to hit the ball away from defenders or use speed to reach or advance rather than using power to do so. Exit velocity has become the preferred currency for hitting in the modern game, but shining on Statcast isn’t the only way to be a good hitter.
Maybe you like the Deserve-to-Win-o-Meter. But maybe you’re reluctant to believe in a new data toy. Check back for part two, where we’ll look at hard data to see if it leads to the same conclusions.
What do you think about the role luck played this season? Comment below!
