Global olive oil production in million tonnes from 2000 to 2024. Source: Carbon Brief, based on figures from the International Olive Council.
As the graph above shows, global olive production has declined significantly since 2021. Between 2021 and 2024, production fell by about a third.
As a result, the price of olive oil has skyrocketed in various parts of the world. In January 2024, costs in Portugal had risen by almost 70 percent compared to January 2023, according to Eurostat. In the EU, prices rose by an average of 50 percent during this period.
As the Guardian reported in March, olive oil has become “the most stolen product in supermarkets across Spain” due to its high price.
In parts of the Mediterranean, sales have “collapsed” due to “sharp price increases,” the Financial Times wrote earlier this year. The paper noted:
“Droughts and heatwaves, exacerbated by climate change, have affected olive oil production in Spain, the world’s largest producer, as well as in other major producing countries such as Italy and Greece, creating a global deficit.”
A large part of the olive oil produced worldwide grows on the olive trees of the Mediterranean countries; Spain alone produces over 40 percent.
Satellite images from NASA’s Earth Observatory indicate that Spain was “hit by drought” between May 2022 and 2023. This drought “dried up water reservoirs, withered olive groves and caused water shortages across the country,” according to NASA.
According to a 2023 study, record temperatures were recorded in almost half of Spain in 2022. The researchers found that “the extremely high temperatures led to intense drought in most areas, despite normal rainfall conditions.”
The olive harvest in Spain has shown signs of improvement since 2022.
Officials say production will reach more than 850,000 tonnes in 2023-24, still “well below the five-year average” but 28 percent above the “historically poor harvest” of 2022-23, the Olive Oil Times reported.
China
Weather extremes reduce rice harvest
The percentage decline in China’s rice yields due to extreme rainfall, heat, drought, cold and other forms of extreme weather from 1999 to 2012. Source: Carbon Brief, based on Fu et al. (2023)
China is a major grain producer and grows more rice and wheat than any other country in the world.
The graph above is based on the results of a 2023 study and shows that extreme rainfall reduced rice yields in China by around 8 percent between 1999 and 2012.
The researchers analyzed long-term national observations and model simulations. Both showed similar results regarding the impact of extreme rainfall on rice yields.
Heat, drought, cold and other weather extremes also had a negative impact on rice yields during this period, as shown in the graph.
Independent government data shows that rice production fell by three percent between 2018 and 2023. Wheat production increased by almost four percent and corn production by almost twelve percent during this period.
A 2018 report by China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment found that climate change was having a “significant impact on cropping systems.” Climate change will lead to less reliable rainfall, increase the spread of dangerous pests and result in shorter growing seasons for many crops in China, the report said.
China has been hit by numerous heat waves, floods, droughts and other extreme weather events in recent years.
According to Reuters, July 2024 was China’s hottest month since comprehensive records began in 1961. The country has also been hit by 25 major floods so far this year, the state-run Global Times reported, the highest number since records began in 1998.
This year, farmers in Henan province – China’s eastern “agricultural heartland” – struggled with “parched crops” followed by extreme rains just a month later, CNN reported. The broadcaster said:
“Parts of the worst-hit city of Nanyang in Henan experienced more than 600 millimeters (about 24 inches) of rain in 24 hours – three-quarters of the amount one would normally expect in an entire year.”
Drier soils cannot absorb water as quickly as moist soils, so heavy rains after a drought can cause water to run off the surface of the earth and cause flooding.
As Reuters recently reported, prices for certain fruits and vegetables in China have “risen sharply” since June after floods and heatwaves “devastated millions of hectares of farmland, leaving consumers deep in their pockets.”
Last year, Carbon Brief reported on the impacts of climate change on China’s farmland. A severe drought, followed by heavy rains and floods last summer, destroyed corn, rice and wheat crops across the country.
This story has been republished with permission from Carbon Brief.
