5 things to watch for Missouri football’s first 4 games

Thanks to Florida State, Eli Drinkwitz’s Missouri football team should have at least a No. 10 next to its name the next time the AP Top 25 is updated, along with something even more valuable.

The Seminoles’ fumble in their season opener against unranked Georgia Tech not only cleared the No. 10 spot, it was also another reminder to Mizzou that the smaller the number next to a program’s name becomes, the more of a target it becomes.

Whether they are playing in Ireland or America, on a Saturday morning in week zero or a Thursday evening on Labor Day, top-ranked teams must be prepared for their opponents’ best shots – or something will happen.

Mizzou should win its first four games. If not, something very bad has happened and its high hopes of a College Football Playoff debut will evaporate faster than an unguarded CJ’s hot wing at a Tigers tailgate party. That Mizzou gets its work done against Murray State, Buffalo, Boston College and, yes, Vanderbilt before what could be a huge trip to Texas A&M is a more than reasonable expectation. But let’s not pretend we won’t learn a few things about Mizzou between now and then.

We’ll soon find out if the Tigers can handle the success they expect or if they seem determined to sabotage themselves. We’ll learn if the “prove something” nature of last season has faded after success in the Cotton Bowl. We’ll see if the Tigers get caught sleepwalking — we’re looking at you, 11:45 a.m. kickoff in Game 3 — or behave like a top-10 team should. And more.

Here are the five things I’m most interested in from Mizzou’s first four games:

• Style points could mean a lot for this team at the end of the season. Can Mizzou deliver them from the start?

Let’s face it. The Tigers’ non-conference schedule could have been sponsored by Charmin. And their SEC schedule is the most forgiving of any team in the league, at least on paper before play begins. Perception matters, and the perception is that Mizzou has an “easy” schedule for an SEC member. This could be a topic of conversation if the Tigers eventually find themselves in the CFP bubble.

Strength of play will be an important metric for bubble teams. Strength of play will not be a strength for Mizzou. But style points can counteract a looser schedule to some degree. You’re probably less likely to be penalized by CFP committee members for a looser schedule if you’re tough on opponents who fill it out. Beating Murray State by multiple touchdowns won’t get much praise, but narrowly beating Murray State by a field goal? That could draw some disapproval later.

Last season, Drinkwitz deliberately applied pressure in Mizzou’s first two preseason games. This season, it’s probably better to go all out right from the start.

• Mizzou’s heavy commitment to immediate transfer solutions at positions of need is best seen in the backfield, where Nate Noel (Appalachian State) and Marcus Carroll (Georgia State) will get the first chances to make up for the NFL departure of Cody Schrader, the SEC’s best runner last season. But there are also important transfers at the top of the lineup.

Offensive linemen Marcus Bryant (Southern Methodist) and Cayden Green (Oklahoma) are expected to protect starting quarterback Brady Cook’s blind side upon arrival. A defense that lost a lot of talent last season is asking for transfers to bolster its front (Florida defensive tackle Chris McClellan) and back (Clemson corner Toriano Pride Jr.).

Transfers either work or they don’t. You can feel it regardless of the opponent.

• Will rookies force bigger roles? Running back Kewan Lacy is too fast not to get a few chances to earn more playing time than originally expected. Pass rusher Williams Nwaneri got a step closer to the field when Georgia transfer Darris Smith suffered a season-ending injury.

Young Tigers that coaches would prefer to redshirt have four games left to play before they must sit out to retain their eligibility. If they want to convince the staff to burn the redshirt because of its importance this season, the persuasion must begin early.

• Mizzou’s new defensive coordinator, Corey Batoon, is getting an enviable start in the SEC. Four home games to start his new job, against teams his team should beat.

I’d like to see opposing quarterbacks look uncomfortable. If you can’t get pressure against Murray State, you’re not going to get much done against Alabama. Mizzou averaged three sacks per game last season, which was the third-highest in the SEC. Mizzou’s defense under former DC Blake Baker was also the best at preventing opposing touchdowns once they got into the red zone. They flexed, but rarely collapsed compared to their SEC counterparts.

MU’s opponents scored touchdowns less than 54% of the time once they entered the red zone last season. Can Batoon’s version of the defense be as strong? It’s time to find out.

• Last question. Big question. Does Mizzou have a kicker it can trust? Like, someone it can really trust?

The bigger kicker isn’t coming through that door. SEC record holder Harrison Mevis is now trying to start his NFL career. Any guesses on what percentage of Mizzou’s field goals Mevis has attempted since he got his old job in 2020? Answer: 100%.

Hopefully the Tigers won’t need any dramatic field goals to pull off the win in their first four games, but rest assured they’ll need a kick (or two) to pull off the win at some point if they want to make the first 12-team playoffs.

All eyes are on former five-star kicker Blake Craig. His next field goal in college football will be his first and the first by a Mizzou kicker not named Mevis since Tucker McCann in 2019. Coaches should find ways to stress test the new leg before it decides a game.