In the race for Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, Donald Trump is still ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris. But the new Democratic candidate has reversed the former president’s fortunes in key voting blocs since she took over from Joe Biden at the top of the electoral list.
This is the result of a new survey by Noble Predictive Insights among 1,003 registered voters. According to the survey, the former president is ahead in the head-to-head race in the Grand Canyon State by 47 percentage points, while she received 44 percent.
Trump’s three-percentage-point lead in this contest matches the results of Noble’s previous poll, conducted in May, when Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee.
Even though the lead remains unchanged and within the margin of error, the numbers provide new evidence that the race is currently more dynamic than it would have been under Biden.
While 15 percent of respondents were undecided when Trump and Biden were on the ballot, only 9 percent say they cannot decide now.
And that seems to be good news for the incumbent party, as pollsters point out that the new slate of candidates has given the Democrats new momentum, which may have led to “renegade” Democrats who disliked Biden returning to the party fold.
To that end, Harris has been able to gain the support of three groups that are critical to her chances in November: independents, Latinos and young voters.
“Harris was able to secure a significant lead in important voting blocs in August – in May these were already partly Trump’s advantages,” the pollsters note.
While Trump was 10 percentage points ahead of Biden among independents in August, Harris is now 5 percentage points ahead of the former president.
She was also able to make up for a two percentage point lead that Trump had among voters under 35 in this age group – she is now eleven percentage points ahead of him.
Among Latinos, it has extended Biden’s two-point lead to twelve points.
“With Biden gone, people are more comfortable with the major party options,” notes Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights.
“Almost every poll is somewhere between Harris +5 and Trump +5,” said David Byler, NPI’s research director. “That suggests a nearly even race. We’re giving Trump a small lead in this poll — but with more than two months to go, either candidate could win the state.”
The race in Arizona also refutes the so-called “double hater” theory that dominated the Trump-Biden duel: According to this theory, voters would be forced to hold their noses and vote for the person they hate the least.
The proportion of double haters fell from 15 percent to 10 percent between the May and August polls; 92 percent of Trump supporters voted for their candidate and not against the Democrat.
On the other hand, 86 percent of Harris voters are motivated by positive feelings about the candidate, although about 20 percent of independents, moderates and men who vote for Harris actually want to vote against Trump first and foremost.
The Noble poll contradicts the FiveThirtyEight average, which puts Harris one point ahead of Trump in the Copper State.
