A new tropical storm may be brewing in the Atlantic and heading toward the United States
This potential storm could form from a low pressure system currently developing in the central tropical Atlantic, and there is a 20 percent chance that it will develop into a cyclone in the next seven days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
If the storm forms, it is expected to move northwest, heading toward the Caribbean islands and possibly the southern United States.
NHC/NOAA National Hurricane Center
“A low pressure system may develop in the central part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean in a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for slow development of the system this weekend into early next week while it moves west to west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph,” the NHC said in a tropical weather report on Wednesday.
According to the NHC, the probability that the low pressure system will develop into a cyclone in the next 48 hours is almost zero percent. However, the probability in the next seven days is 20 percent.
According to NOAA, a cyclone is any large air mass that rotates around a strong center of low pressure. A tropical cyclone is a cyclone that forms over warm tropical oceans.
The weakest form of tropical cyclone is a tropical depression, which is a collection of thunderstorms with a defined low-pressure center but lacks the well-organized structure of stronger tropical systems. When wind speeds exceed 39 mph, the cyclone becomes a tropical storm, and when wind speeds reach 74 mph, the storm is defined as a hurricane or, in the northwest Pacific, a typhoon.
According to the NHC, a second cyclone could also be brewing in the western Atlantic, with a 10 percent chance of cyclone formation within both 48 hours and seven days. This potential storm is expected to move northward over the next few days, making it unlikely to reach the United States at this time.
“A low pressure system several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda is producing a small area of disorganized rain and thunderstorm activity. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to limit further development of this system over the next few days as the low pressure system moves northward to north-northeastward at about 10 mph,” the NHC said in the Tropical Weather Outlook.
National Hurricane Center NHC
Cyclones form in the Atlantic Ocean due to a combination of several meteorological and oceanic factors, including sea temperature, humidity, wind shear, and pressure systems.
Warm ocean waters provide the energy needed to form and intensify the cyclone, which is why the Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June to November. In addition, high humidity contributes to the formation of thunderstorms, and low-pressure systems cause warm, moist air to flow inward from surrounding high-pressure systems. This air cools and condenses, releasing heat and creating clouds and thunderstorms.
High wind shears – significant differences in wind speed and direction at different altitudes – can disrupt the organization of a developing cyclone and inhibit its growth. Therefore, low wind shears are ideal for cyclone formation.
While these two disturbances are strengthening in the Atlantic, three tropical storms are simultaneously moving across the Pacific. Tropical Storms Hone, Gilma, and Hector are all moving westward, with Hone and Gilma being downgraded from hurricane status in recent days.
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