For the first time in ten years, no team may win 100 games.
Is this a good or bad thing for Major League Baseball?
As part of our weekly conversation with Hall of Famer John Smoltz, the FOX MLB analyst shared his thoughts on parity in baseball this season, the idea of a six-inning minimum for starting pitchers, the prospect of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani’s Triple Crown, and more.
Kavner: MLB is reportedly considering the concept of giving starting pitchers a minimum of six innings to maintain player health. Do you like the idea? Is there anything else you would try to get starting pitchers more use than we’ve seen in recent years?
Smoltz: Well, I’m grateful for any idea that promotes a different philosophy, because as I’ve said many times, that philosophy doesn’t work, just from a health standpoint. And it’s not good for the game either. When you have 10-12 pitchers a game, there’s no opponent that people want to watch. I think we need to get back to bringing greatness to our game, from a starting pitcher standpoint.
And that’s one thing you can coach. That philosophy would change if the rules changed. If you change the rules, nobody is at a disadvantage. That’s what I love about it. People will complain and whine like little kids because they’re used to everything being the way it is. If the sport is going in a direction that’s not good for it in the long term, you have to change the rules to get it back in the direction you want it to go in order for the sport to thrive.
We’ve already seen changes that have had a positive impact. There have been no negative ones. Everyone complained right away and in five months they were over it. So I’m a big proponent of the six-inning minimum. I think that’s not only teachable but easy to implement. If you’re asking players to give their maximum effort and there’s an injury, I don’t know why that surprises anyone. It looks good on paper, but physically it never works and it never works long term. That’s something nobody in the minor leagues was willing to do, to prepare a pitcher to go into the game long. And if there’s a rule change now that improves that philosophy for all teams, you’ll see pitching be as good for longer as ours.
You mentioned that it starts in the minor leagues, where pitchers are taught to give their maximum effort. Do you think drastic measures are needed now to change that philosophy?
It will take a while, but they won’t forget how to throw a baseball. You just have to re-teach them that they don’t have to give it their all every time. If we’ve watered down batting technique to the point where a .220 batting average is normal and no one is penalized for hitting .220 anymore, what’s a 3.50 to 4.00 ERA doing but with more innings?
If we’re going to get to a point where we really want to change the game for the better, those changes have to happen. The 1.90 ERAs and the 290-300 strikeouts in 180 innings – man, that sounds and looks great, but if this guy can only keep that up for a couple of years, what are we going to do?
The NFL has done things that have radically changed their sport. The quarterback position is now a protected position where you can’t hit guys like you used to because they’ve realized that if you lose the quarterback, you lose the NFL. I know a lot of people don’t like that and the old hands are frustrated because you can’t hit them a certain way anymore, but the NFL is going to take care of the NFL and baseball needs to start looking at this from the same perspective and find a way to keep these pitchers healthier.
Speaking of watered down offense: In the last 50 years, there has only been one Hitting Triple Crown. This year, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Marcell Ozuna are all within reach. What do you think about three clubs simultaneously battling for this rare feat?
I know it’s not sexy anymore because people have simplified it, but I still think it’s one of the greatest accomplishments a hitter can achieve. And I think when you think about the whole league and the opportunities that any individual has to ruin a Triple Crown season, we’re talking about a lot of people, and to be in elite company where you have three categories that I still consider very important, I think that’s phenomenal.
Ozuna is having this year where he’s not only getting MVP votes, but he’s single-handedly kept the team afloat for a long time. That Braves team wouldn’t be anywhere near where it is now with all the injuries they’ve had. Ohtani has dipped a little in average, but he’s picked up with stolen bases, and he’s having a magical year. So I’m crossing my fingers for a Triple Crown run. I think that’s great. And I laugh at anybody who’s kind of downplaying that because they’re in an analytical position and think that these things don’t matter. Anytime you have something that doesn’t happen very often in the history of the game, I think that’s great, and that’s what we have this year.
Shohei Ohtani hits walk-off grand slam for his 40th home run of the season
There is currently no team on track to reach 100 wins. Do you think this parity is ultimately good or bad for the game?
Personally, I think it’s great. I never understood the NBA model of having something like four super teams. I never understood how people could be OK with that. Baseball has shown over the last 25 years that there can be several different champions and it’s rare, with a few exceptions, for someone to win more than one.
There will be some debate when teams with a sub-.500 record make the playoffs. That could get a little confusing, especially if those teams advance and maybe win the World Series. But I still think that baseball in 162 games shows what can happen if you do things right and make certain trades. So personally, I think it’s good.
You’ve played for some pretty good Braves teams that won 100+ games and some division winners that only won 88 games. As a player who wanted to go all out, was it easier for you to focus and play well when you ended up with another team breathing down your neck, or when you had the division wrapped up early and could just focus on getting ready for October?
It changes from year to year. If you’ve got a team pretty banged up and you’ve wrapped it up, it’s great. But sometimes you get to the postseason and things aren’t going well. People say the best thing to do is to get in on the last day and just ride the momentum. But then you get pretty stressed and tired. I’ve always thought that if you wrap it up in the last week, it’s great, but if you wrap it up with three weeks to go, you’re playing mind games and your manager has to make sure you’re on alert so your body and your brain know.
It’s just human nature that when you have nothing at stake, including home-court advantage, it’s best to play against a team that’s playing for something. If you’re playing spoilsport and you’re out of the postseason, that’s your playoffs. But you never want to be on the other side of someone spoiling you because there’s nothing left for them to win.
For the Baltimore Orioleswho just made the playoffs for the first time since 2016, do you think that in this tight division race with the New York Yankees Will they ultimately benefit from it?
I think so. They’re going through a rough patch right now. They’ve had an incredibly tough schedule and they’re just trying to get through it. I think every one of their last 10 or 12 games has been against a playoff team, and I think that’s going to serve the Orioles better. But they’ve had so many injuries, I don’t know how they’ve managed to do it up to this point. So to their credit, they’ve learned from last year to really get through this really tough patch, not just injury-wise, but scheduling-wise.
Johannes SmoltzAn instant member of the Baseball Hall of Fame, eight-time All-Star and National League Cy Young Award winner, Smoltz is FOX MLB’s lead game analyst. In addition to commentating on the network’s major regular-season games, Smoltz is also in the booth for the All-Star Game and a full slate of postseason games, including the Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the LA Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. Rowan, an LSU graduate, was born in California, grew up in Texas and moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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