While the Cubs still have a slim chance of clinching a wild-card spot in the National League—they’re not insurmountable behind, but they’re five teams ahead of them—there are just as many “what ifs” in the race for the wild-card spot in the American League.
As the Cubs make a foray into the American League this month and play their next 11 games against AL teams, let’s take a look at who might and might not be in the “other” league.
The current AL division leaders are the Guardians (67-47), Orioles (68-48) and Astros (59-55). The Yankees and Orioles both have a 68-48 record, but the Orioles currently hold the tiebreaker between the teams, so we have Baltimore leading the AL East. Likewise, the Astros and Mariners (60-56) are both four games over .500, but Houston leads the AL West by one percentage point, .518 to .517.
This is important because the AL West leaders are both four games out of the final wild-card spot, so unless one or both of these teams get going, the second-place team in the AL West will be eliminated from the postseason.
That leaves the Yankees, Twins and Royals as the current AL wild card teams. If the season ended today, the Guardians and Orioles would get a bye and the wild card rounds would be Royals vs. Astros and Twins vs. Yankees. I can’t tell you how unenthusiastic the Twins would be about this matchup, as they lost four division series to the Yankees in the first decade of this century: 2003, 2004, 2009 and 2010, winning just two games in those four series.
The other AL teams with a chance at a wild-card spot are the Red Sox (61-52) and Rays (58-56). Boston is 1½ games behind the Royals in last place and Tampa Bay is five games back and will again have to overtake several teams to get in.
There’s still plenty of time left in this season, as the average MLB team has played 115 games before Friday’s games. That leaves 47 games remaining, and that’s plenty of time for anyone looking to get on a winning streak. Last year, for example, the Diamondbacks were 57-58 after 115 games. They were 2½ games out of the final wild-card spot, trailing the Cubs in that race. Well, you know what happened. Arizona finished 27-20 in its final 47 games, but that was enough to sneak into the final wild-card spot — and after that, they had a winning streak all the way to the World Series.
So the AL races will be exciting to watch, as will the NL races, and yes, I still think the Cubs have a chance to qualify. But they need to start one of those winning streaks now. I’ll probably watch the NL races sometime next week.
