New survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University examines race and gender in the presidential election campaign and which factors negatively affect the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.
“Trump has built his political career around a very specific representation of whiteness and masculinity,” said Daniel CassinoProfessor of government and policy at Fairleigh Dickinson University and executive director of the survey. “In the past, this was seen as a strength, but it’s no longer clear whether it works.”
The FDU survey shows Kamala Harris She leads among likely voters nationally, 50% to 43%, but the real novelty of this poll is testing whether gender and race play a role.
A third of respondents were asked whether they consider “the race or ethnicity of the candidate,” and another third were asked “whether the candidate is a man or a woman.” The rest were not asked any questions along these lines.
“Among voters who were not prepared to think about the candidates’ race or gender, Harris and Trump are tied (47 to 48). When the list of issues mentions the candidates’ gender, Harris is ahead, 52 to 42. And when the candidates’ race is mentioned, Harris is ahead 14 points, 53 to 39, a shift of 15 points from the baseline,” the FDU notes.
For Cassino, these findings have profound implications.
“When voters think about race or gender, Trump’s support drops rapidly,” Cassino said. “We constantly hear strategists and pundits say that Democratic candidates shouldn’t talk about identity, but these results show that when voters put race and gender at the forefront, it hurts Trump and strengthens Harris.”
This boost is indeed considerable.
Without the question that “predicts” the answer, Harris leads among non-white voters by 55% to 39%. But when race is mentioned, Harris’ lead among the same group grows to 65% to 29%.
“Race matters in elections, but it’s not necessarily something voters think about,” Cassino said. “Trump does quite well with non-white voters as long as they don’t think about race. As soon as they do, we see a big shift toward Harris.”
The same effect occurs among white voters.
“In the unprepared condition, Trump leads Harris by 11 points among white voters, 53 to 42. In the racially prepared condition, the two are tied, with Harris narrowly ahead among white voters, 47 to 44.”
A similar phenomenon exists with regard to gender and its impact on voters.
“Mentioning the candidates’ gender has no real effect on men’s votes: it increases support for Harris by 5 percentage points and decreases support for Trump by 2 percentage points. But among women, mentioning the candidates’ gender decreases support for Trump by 7 percentage points, from 40 percent in the non-predetermined condition to 33 percent in the gender-determined condition. The net effect is a change from women’s preference for Harris by 16 percentage points (56 to 40) in the non-predetermined condition to women’s preference for Harris by 26 percentage points (59 to 33) in the gender-determined condition,” the FDU notes.
In addition, pollsters found that “just over half of men say they are ‘completely male,’ and just under half describe themselves in some other way (as ‘mostly male,’ ‘slightly male,’ or one of the female categories). The men who place themselves in the ‘completely male’ category favor Trump over Harris by a wide margin, 64 to 30. All other men favor Harris by a 20-point margin, 55 to 35.”
“We talk about the gender gap in voting as one between men and women,” Cassino said. “But that’s not the case. The real gender gap is between men who hold to traditionally male identities and everyone else. Identity is not just about race and gender: Trump’s appeal to a traditional form of male identity is the only thing that makes this campaign so exciting.”
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