For attentive observers of Japanese baseball or the 2023 World Baseball Classic, Roki Sasaki is already a known quantity. The 22-year-old phenom is baseball’s version of LeBron James – a star in high school who realized his potential as a professional early and often.
He could soon come to the United States.
Sasaki has in the past asked his team, the Chiba Lotte Marines, for permission to enter the posting system and move up to Major League Baseball, but the team is under no obligation to do so, and Sasaki currently has little financial incentive to move up.
Under the current rules of the posting system between MLB and Nippon Professional Baseball, if Sasaki leaves Japan before 2026, he would be limited to his contracted team’s international spending cap.
Which team has the highest international spending cap this offseason?
Luckily for Sasaki, the answer is one of baseball’s best teams: the Baltimore Orioles.
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Writing for FanGraphs.com, Eric Longenhagen says the Orioles currently spend about $4,268,880 on the upcoming international class. That number can change for a variety of reasons—teams can trade their international contract money, for example—but currently, no other club can spend more than $4 million, according to the report.
Does this mean that Baltimore has the best chance of getting perhaps the most coveted player in the upcoming free agent class? Maybe.
As Longenhagen explains,
… Of course, if Sasaki decides to come here this winter rather than in 2026 when he would make more, that may be an indication that money is not his primary motivator and that he may simply sign where he feels most comfortable (which in baseball is generally considered to be the Dodgers) rather than where his bonus would be highest. The potential for other revenue streams may also be greatest in LA. If Sasaki is dealt this offseason, he will be ready for free agency after the 2030 season at age 29.
The Shohei Ohtani precedent may be instructive here.
Ohtani also chose to leave money on the table when he signed with the Angels as an international amateur in December 2017 at age 23. But he more than made up for that loss when he signed a 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers last December.
Ohtani is technically making just $2 million in salary with the Dodgers this year due to the unique structure of his contract deferrals. The majority of Ohtani’s income reportedly comes from his endorsement deals. Perhaps Sasaki is willing to gamble on a similar plan for his future earnings – a future that may be more likely in Los Angeles.
For now, however, the Orioles have something no other MLB team can offer Sasaki if he wants to start his career in Baltimore: a signing bonus of over $4 million.
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