The Red Sox won a series against the red-hot Astros in Houston this week, the latest twist in what has been an extremely inconsistent season for Boston.
The three games at Minute Maid Park summed up much of what the Red Sox have been through over the past month — for better and for worse. Monday’s game followed an all-too-familiar pattern for the Red Sox. Home runs by Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida helped the Red Sox take a 4-2 lead by the bottom of the sixth inning, but that lead slowly eroded, culminating in a walk-off home run by Yainer Diaz that closer Kenley Jansen allowed. It was a rare misstep for Jansen, who played more or less flawlessly for the first half of the season before stumbling in July but seemed to have regained his form in August before Diaz teeed off on Monday.
Although Jansen hasn’t been at the center of Boston’s recent spate of blown leads, Monday’s finish marked another troubling streak for a bullpen that has been astonishingly bad since the All-Star break. From the start of the second half through Monday’s game, Boston’s relievers combined for an MLB-worst ERA of 6.93, more than a full run worse than the 29th-ranked White Sox (5.88) over that span.
It wasn’t just the bullpen, though, as a rotation that excelled early in the season has posted a 5.00 ERA since the break, good for 24th in MLB. With one of the best offenses in baseball — which has gotten better as the year has gone on — Boston has been able to overcome a string of poor pitching performances to avoid significant losing streaks. But the state of the personnel has made the last few innings particularly precarious lately.
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That context set the stage for a game on Tuesday that seemed headed for a similarly frustrating outcome. After a back-and-forth battle, the game was tied in the sixth inning, another sticky situation that the Red Sox bullpen was responsible for. But this time, four relievers combined for four scoreless innings, and Duran delivered a solo home run in the eighth inning that gave the lead and clinched the win and evened the series.
Wednesday’s playoff game didn’t look particularly favorable for the Red Sox on paper, as Boston’s No. 5 starter Cooper Criswell was pitted against a future Hall of Famer, Justin Verlander, returning from the IL. But after allowing a home run to Alex Bregman, Criswell came into his own, followed by six Red Sox relief pitchers – none of whom were Kenley Jansen – who held Houston scoreless for the rest of the game. That this beleaguered unit was able to weave its way through Houston’s lineup and secure a series win was impressive in itself, and especially encouraging considering their recent form.
The Astros had won 10 of 11 games — including a resounding victory at Fenway Park a week earlier — entering their series this week, no easy feat for a Red Sox team looking for positive momentum. But Boston’s bold response in Games 2 and 3 after Monday’s heartbreak was less surprising from another perspective: The Red Sox were excellent away this season. Only the Yankees (41) have more road wins this year than Boston (38), with a road winning percentage of .585 that is currently the third-best by a Red Sox team this century, behind only the 2002 and 2018 teams.
The downside, of course, was a strangely poor performance by the team in its historic home stadium, which explains the 6.5-game gap between the Red Sox and their main rivals in the Bronx. Boston’s 29-32 record at Fenway is tied with Pittsburgh for the sixth-worst home record in baseball.
So what’s going on? Is this team even good? Aside from the unusual home/away splits, this question has been particularly difficult to answer because Boston hasn’t been able to sync up its best performances on the mound with its most productive periods on offense. Check out where Boston ranks in the league in ERA and wRC+ by month:
March/April: 2.62 ERA (1st); 102 wRC+ (13th)
May: 4.12 ERA (17th); 85 wRC+ (23rd)
June: 4.35 ERA (21st); 120 wRC+ (7th)
July: 4.91 ERA (23rd); 128 WRC+ (3rd)
August: 5.35 ERA (28th); 114 wRC+ (9th)
While the pitchers have slacked, the offense has found its rhythm. And with the roster imbalance came a pretty up-and-down streak over the summer. After seeming magnetically tied to .500 in May and into June, Boston began to rise as the weather—and the bats—warmed. The Sox won 10 of their final 13 games before the All-Star break, improving their record to a season-high 11 games over .500. Not only did they have a two-game lead over Kansas City for the third AL wild-card spot, but they were also only 4.5 games behind Baltimore in the AL East at the time. The mood was good and spirits high.
Then the second half began with a miserable road trip that included a loss at Dodger Stadium and a losing series at Coors Field in which the Red Sox allowed 20 runs in the finale. Then they returned home and immediately lost a series to the Yankees, knocking the Red Sox out of playoff position, where they remained while the Royals and Twins played their best baseball in August.
Now, with 36 games remaining — that’s 35 plus a suspended game against Toronto that must be completed next week — the Red Sox occupy a unique position in the AL postseason as the field of wild-card contenders slowly shrinks. Since mid-June, Boston’s playoff chances have not fallen below 25%, but they have not risen above 53% either; they are currently around 40%, according to FanGraphs. Given Texas’ disappointment, Toronto and Tampa Bay’s trade deadline sales, and Seattle’s dramatic slide in recent weeks, Boston has emerged as the most likely alternative to get back into postseason position if teams like Kansas City or Minnesota falter in the home stretch.
But for the Red Sox, the next five weeks aren’t just about looking at the scoreboard and hoping the teams in front of them struggle. If Boston wants to avoid missing the postseason for a third straight year — something that hasn’t happened to this franchise since 2012 — it’s going to have to step up its own game and show a more consistent combination of run production and run prevention than it has at any point this season.
This week’s performance in Houston was a promising step in the right direction, but there is still work to be done. This weekend, we face a tough test as the impressive Diamondbacks return to Fenway Park for the first time since 2016. Both teams will be looking to make up ground in the standings come October.
