He’s always been more of a pitcher than a thrower, but Minnesota Twins starter Bailey Ober claims he’s even better this season.
From implementing two new pitches over the past two offseasons to refining his changeup into an elite offering, Ober believes he has a better overall approach than when he entered the big leagues in 2021.
The right-hander’s emergence comes at a crucial time for the Twins, as Ober and Joe Ryan have had to make strides this season to fill the void left by Sonny Gray’s departure as a free agent. Barring a disaster in his first appearance, Ober is giving the Twins exactly what they need, striking out more batters than ever before and pitching long in games.
Ober is one of the Twins’ starters scheduled to pitch in Friday’s big doubleheader against the Cleveland Guardians. He has an 11-5 record this season, a 3.69 ERA and 128 strikeouts in 122 1/3 innings.
“He’s learning,” said catcher Christian Vázquez. “He’s getting a lot more mature in his pitching. We can throw any pitch, no matter what the count is. He can throw and get strikes. He’s learning a lot. We’re very excited to see that.”
Teammates congratulate Bailey Ober after he threw a complete game against the A’s. (D. Ross Cameron / USA Today)
Ober, 29, is thrilled to have rediscovered his changeup, which was his favorite pitch before he lost control of it in the minor leagues when the Twins asked him to switch arm positions. He found it again before the 2023 season while working with former Chicago Cubs first-rounder and current pitching instructor Luke Hagerty at his X2 Baseball facility in Concord, NC.
The two connected through mutual friends after both moved to the Charlotte area, with Ober returning after spending several years in Denver while Hagerty moved his training facility to North Carolina after coaching in the Phoenix area following the end of his playing career in 2008.
When Ober and the Twins sat down after the 2022 season to evaluate his performance, the prevailing opinion was that the right-hander needed to regain the changeup. Ober thought working with Hagerty would help him achieve that goal.
“I needed a pitch I could rely on,” Ober said. “Really… it was all about getting the feel for it and finding the right grip, because I used to throw changeups all the time.”
When Ober arrived at his facility with a desire to improve, Hagerty, who was selected in the first round of the 2002 draft and suffered a devastating tear of his ulnar collateral ligament a year later, knew there was no selling the pitcher.
To gather as much information as possible about Ober, Hagerty put the pitcher in front of a stop-motion camera and asked him to throw one changeup after another. Hagerty soon discovered an inconsistency in the placement of Ober’s middle finger that affected how far the changeup could fall.
“His middle finger would bend forward,” said Hagerty, who attempted a comeback with the Cubs in 2019 as a 37-year-old. “It would still be an OK changeup. But if he could bounce off of it and keep that kind of hyperextended and let it roll off his finger, then we would get the zero-vert, a lot more depth. Those were the ones that already felt really good. We were able to recognize that and hammer it in the rest of the offseason.”
The work resulted in significant changes in the pitch’s effectiveness. In 2022, the average drop on Ober’s changeup was 30.7 inches. After refining the pitch, Ober’s average vertical drop increased to 33.7 inches in 2023 and is 33.5 inches this season. While Ober’s pitch ranked 311th out of 561 changeups in the majors in 2022 with a run value of minus-1, last year it improved to 14th out of 551 with a run value of plus-8. This season, Ober’s changeup ranks 11th with a run value of plus-6.
Twins pitching coach Pete Maki said the pitch has gotten even better this season because Ober has been better at placing it just below the zone, which has led to hitters chasing it more often for strikes. Ober has a 39 percent whiff rate on the changeup, up from 29.8 percent a year ago.
“The changeup positions have been much better this year, especially on two strikes,” Maki said. “He’s working down low a lot more than he did last year, especially on two strikes. That was one of our goals for him in spring training: to get him under the strike zone with that pitch, and he’s doing that right now.”
Bailey Obers 9th, 10th and 11th graders pic.twitter.com/HqxViTi1po
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 28, 2024
Aside from the changeup, the Twins’ assessment suggested Ober would benefit from a sweeper. Ober and Hagerty added the pitch before the 2023 season with mixed results, leading to the development of a cut fastball before this season. Ober’s cutter is about 6 mph harder than the sweeper and is easy to throw for strikes. His ability to throw those strikes means hitters are more likely to guess when he’s throwing his sweeper, which has led to him becoming a plus pitch. This season, the sweeper has a run value of plus-3.
When the Twins selected him 346th overall in the 2017 MLB Draft, Ober was a north-south pitcher. Now he can attack all four quadrants. In 20 starts since his eight-run disaster in Kansas City on March 31, Ober has a 3.13 ERA and a .191 batting average against.
“The lost art of pitching is learning how to sequence and set up throws and mix speeds, going in and out, up and down,” Ober said. “I feel like I’ve accomplished that. My arsenal is more complete than it’s been in years, and once you find those new throws, the more you throw them, the more comfortable you’ll get and the better you’ll be at locating them. Once you can locate, you can start playing with sequencing and setting things up.”
Ober is clearly becoming more comfortable pitching with a full arsenal, having gone at least six innings in each of his last eight starts, posting a 1.95 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings.
“He’s always been good,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said. “He’s always had good control of the fastball. He’s always been able to use the pitch effectively in different parts of the zone. But it all works. Throwing strikes and the delivery itself are probably the two biggest things that always benefit him.”
While he’s adjusting his throwing technique, Ober has maintained his reputation as a strike thrower. He likes to work up front and ranks eighth in strike percentage and sixth in first-pitch strike percentage, according to FanGraphs. Hagerty believes this is in part simply because Ober’s 7-foot wingspan gives hitters an unusual look. To hitters, a fastball that reads 91-93 mph on the radar actually looks more like 95-96 mph.
“It’s really unexpected when you see a guy that big come out of a deep slot and the ball fly through you – it’s kind of confusing for a hitter,” Hagerty said of the 6-foot-1 Ober. “He’s really in tune with how everything fits together and how one pitch works with another.”
Ober knows he’s not going to blow anyone away with his outstanding speed. But by throwing to all quadrants and providing a variety of options, he can slow down even the best offenses in baseball, as he did in a July 22 win over the Philadelphia Phillies. After allowing a two-run home run to Bryce Harper in the first inning, Ober struck out 19 of the next 22 batters he faced.
“The hitters just have to cover a lot more,” Ober said. “They have to watch out for things moving toward them, things going away, things jumping at them. It’s just a little harder for them to really sit on something.”
(Top photo: Nick Wosika / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
