OVER THE Over the past ten days, Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, has been transformed. Images of Sheikh Hasina, the former prime minister who fled the country on August 5, and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, her father and the founding father of Bangladesh, have disappeared from billboards. Walls are covered with posters and slogans promoting the Awami League (AL), her party, were painted over with colorful graffiti showing slogans and scenes from the protests that brought down Sheikh Hasina. “Gen Z “Courage is contagious,” reads one, “Courage is contagious,” reads another. The mood has changed with the look of the city. “It is very liberating to be able to talk openly about things again after all these years,” says a young Non-governmental organization employees.
For now, political change seems to be keeping pace. Since taking office on August 8, the interim government led by Nobel Peace Prize winner and social entrepreneur Muhammad Yunus has carried out a rapid restructuring of the leadership of key institutions. Yunus has appointed a new chief justice and a new central bank governor. At least 16 university rectors have resigned under pressure from students. The government has announced that it will bring those responsible for state-sponsored killings during the protests to justice. Cases against students have been dropped since investigations began in July. It has also introduced police reforms to restore confidence in law enforcement.
Life is slowly returning to normal. Primary schools reopened on August 14; the Dhaka metro will reopen on August 17. Factories are back to work and workers are returning to their offices. High school and university exams scheduled for August have been postponed until September to give students time to rest and prepare. Police stations have also reopened, raising hopes that the many ordinary people who have been guarding their neighborhoods at night for the past few weeks can return to a more normal rhythm.
But the question remains how solid this return to normality really is. Yunus’ position, while supported by the army and the population, is legally precarious: Sheikh Hasina has abolished a constitutional provision for interim governments between elections. There are concerns that Yunus will have to resign before he can reform the political system sufficiently to break the vicious cycle of retribution between Sheikh Hasina’s and the government. AL and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) by Khaleda Zia, who has shaped Bangladesh’s politics since independence from Pakistan in 1971.
The constitution requires elections to be held within 90 days. But observers in Dhaka say Yunus needs more time to protect the judiciary, police and electoral system from renewed political capture. “If we hold elections in two years, we may have a balanced political system,” said Major General Shahidul Haque, a retired army officer and former ambassador. “But if we hold them too early, we will end up with the same old thing.”
The reopening of police stations shows how quickly things can go wrong. Most are still manned by soldiers. Police remain reluctant to resume work, fearing reprisals for violence during the protests. But that possibility is slowly taking hold, says General Haque. “The army does not have the capacity to do this forever, so it needs to redeploy the police as soon as possible.” Otherwise, the country risks anarchy or martial law.
A first test of the emerging new law and order structure could take place on August 15, the anniversary of the assassination of Sheikh Mujib in 1975. AL Supporters traditionally hold large rallies. The interim government has declared the day a normal working day. At the instigation of Sheikh Hasina from exile in Delhi, the AL nevertheless called for a rally.
Another danger is the pressure from the countries’ political parties to hold early elections. At the moment they are showing restraint. “We support the transitional government,” says Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, the BNPSecretary General. “We want elections as soon as possible, but the political environment must be ready for them.” Other party leaders say the same. However, if they sense a wavering in Mr Yunus’ government, they may change their minds.
Another risk is that the students whose protests brought Mr Yunus to power will lose patience and try to take matters into their own hands. The former chief justice’s resignation on August 10 was partly prompted by a large protest outside the Supreme Court. More such protest politics could undermine Mr Yunus’s authority. To make Bangladesh a vibrant democracy, his government must act quickly. ■
