There’s a lot of excitement about whether a rookie QB should start or be benched in his first season. Anecdotally, it’s easier to remember the good cases than the bad. Everyone knows how Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers were benched, but Rex Grossman also sat on the bench for most of his rookie season before fading into football prominence. This person has sifted through all the quarterbacks who were benched for most of their rookie season, and let’s look at what the data can show us.
Start or bench rookie QBs
The data
Using CBS Sports’ list of how quarterbacks have performed for their teams over the years, any mixed result or higher was considered a “hit” for that team. To be clear, Fields is a miss because even if he hits in Pittsburgh, it was a miss for the Chicago Bears. Incomplete results were omitted (so no 2023 quarterbacks were included). Using this set, 33 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round since 2012, and seven were benched in their rookie year, while 26 started nine or more games. Using the mixed result or higher, 11/26 quarterbacks who immediately enter action are considered hits. Three of the seven benched quarterbacks have hit off the bench.
Put your rookie QB on the bench
The Chiefs put Mahomes behind Alex Smith and then paired him with Andy Reid, who was a good coach by almost every measure. Watson was a hit for the Texans until his off-field saga and transfer happened. Lamar Jackson is the perfect AFC North QB, with rushing ability that gives even the strongest defenses a little bit of a scare.
However, Trey Lance was benched for one season before Brock Purdy stole his lunch. What was supposed to be the perfect landing spot for a career in San Francisco turned into a fantasy football team’s nightmare. Paxton Lynch was benched for most of his rookie season. More specifically, Lynch was benched for most of his NFL career, starting only four games for the Denver Broncos. The Manziel saga was mind-numbing from the start, but the Browns are the Browns.
Start your rookie QB
Spending less money on the most expensive position in football is probably a good thing. Ten of the last eleven Super Bowls have featured a quarterback on a rookie contract, and the flexibility that brings is pretty important (unless you have Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady, then you can apparently do whatever you want). Andrew Luck was the lone bright spot for immediate starters from 2012-15, but Goff and Wentz each had varying degrees of success for their teams.
There are certainly more failures than successes in this group, with EJ Manuel, Ryan Tannehill and, more recently, Kenny Pickett being the source of the fanbase’s disdain. Starting too early can create bad habits (Sam Darnold sees ghosts), but it also has the benefit of letting the team know what it has early. The Texans know they have a star quarterback on a rookie contract, so they now have the flexibility to go all out early. Their playoff window is open earlier and will therefore stay open longer.
Last word on QBs
Looking at the raw numbers, starting the rookie QB had a 42% hit rate, while keeping him on the bench had almost exactly the same 43% hit rate. Most analysts will consider Love a hit sooner rather than later. It’s also safe to say that CJ Stroud is a hit while Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young are still lucky.
If we define what a “hit” is more strictly, then sitting definitely has the higher hit rate, but the sample size is much smaller. The number of teams that have the luxury of benching a first-round QB is small. Combine that with the rookie scale advantage, and it’s a maneuver teams don’t use often.
It all depends on what stage of development the player is in and what environment he’s in. A promising young player who still needs to improve a few things (Drake Maye) could benefit from a redshirt season. Michael Penix, on the other hand, one of the most complete passers in the 2024 NFL Draft, is probably good to go now. Unfortunately, he probably won’t get a chance this season.
Photo credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
