The Big Ten has gotten a lot bigger, but I don’t know if it will actually be any better in 2024.
Ohio State may be a co-favorite for the national title, and Oregon is close to competing for the title. But three-time defending champion Michigan is rebuilding, Penn State needs to prove it can overcome the hurdle, and there could be a drop-off after the first four or five teams.
Big Ten Predictions
| team | Big Ten record | Overall balance |
|---|---|---|
|
9:0 |
12:0 |
|
|
7-2 |
10-2 |
|
|
7-2 |
9-3 |
|
|
7-2 |
9-3 |
|
|
6-3 |
9-3 |
|
|
6-3 |
8-4 |
|
|
6-3 |
8-4 |
|
|
5-4 |
8-4 |
|
|
5-4 |
7-5 |
|
|
5-4 |
7-5 |
|
|
3-6 |
5-7 |
|
|
3-6 |
5-7 |
|
|
3-6 |
4-8 |
|
|
2-7 |
5-7 |
|
|
2-7 |
5-7 |
|
|
2-7 |
5-7 |
|
|
2-7 |
4-8 |
|
|
1-8 |
4-8 |
A few thoughts on the top contenders
State of Ohio: The Buckeyes are well positioned and there is no close second place in the conference. An offense with TreVeyon Henderson and Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins in the backfield and Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith on the outside seems unfair. A trip to Oregon on October 12 should be the big test, but I don’t see the two on the same level.
Oregon: Don’t expect a huge drop in performance from Bo Nix to Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel, who could have a lot of fun throwing to Tez Johnson and Texas A&M transfer Evan Stewart. He will benefit from an offensive line that allowed just five sacks last season. The defense will have to step up for the Ducks to win the conference. Dan Lanning made some nice additions in the portal.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes will likely face challenges on offense again – Brendan Sullivan, who failed to hold down at Northwestern, could be the starting quarterback – but the addition of Tim Lester as coordinator should help. But of course the defense is always strong and will only face a few opponents (like Ohio State) that it cannot shut down.
Michigan: The Wolverines won’t be competing for another national title — it’s just a question of how far they slip. The defense, led by top tackles Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham, should be awfully stingy again, and running back Donovan Edwards is a proven star. But breaking in a new quarterback and losing almost the entire O-line isn’t ideal.
Penn State: James Franklin is bringing in another offensive coordinator to hopefully get more out of quarterback Drew Allar, but the players around him seem limited. The Nittany Lions can always be counted on to field a strong defense. The three games against USC, against Wisconsin and at home against Ohio State will define the season.
Rutgers: Sure, Rutgers. Greg Schiano’s program is poised for a breakthrough in its fourth season after jumping from 4-8 in 2022 to 7-6 last season. The defense finished in the top 20 last season and All-Big Ten running back Kyle Monangai proved to be a force. No, they won’t make it to Indianapolis, but the Scarlet Knights should make a decent bowl appearance.
Wisconsin: I would be surprised if the Badgers don’t show improvement in Luke Fickell’s second season, thanks in part to the signing of Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke. But the Badgers still have questions and their schedule is daunting. Alabama visits Camp Randall, the Badgers go to USC and Iowa, and they host Penn State and Oregon.
A few thoughts on the other new schools
USC: It’s not an ideal time for USC to move to the Big Ten. Even if Miller Moss becomes Lincoln Riley’s next great quarterback protégé, the Trojans are unlikely to dominate on offense. And while Riley has made some big personnel moves, most notably signing UCLA DC D’Anton Lynn, he still needs a year to improve his talent.
Washington: The Huskies are perhaps the closest thing to a college football expansion team. A completely new coaching staff, many of whom followed Jedd Fisch from Arizona. New quarterback: Will Rogers, who has played for Mississippi State for four years. A completely new offensive line and new starters at nine positions on defense. Six wins would be a success.
UCLA: DeShaun Foster has his hands full at his alma mater. The fan base has not yet recovered from the malaise of the Chip Kelly era. UCLA has fallen far behind in NIL, hurting the program in the portal and in recruiting. And the renowned DC has moved across town. Quarterback Ethan Garbers is solid, but the Bruins could take a considerable step back on defense.
(Photos by Tez Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson: Mark J. Rebilas, Adam Cairns / USA Today)
