Vladimir Guerrero Jr., first baseman for the Toronto Blue Jays, will not be a free agent until the 2025/26 offseason. Nevertheless, there is constant speculation about his future.
Guerrero had been the subject of trade rumors prior to the July 30 deadline, although general manager Ross Atkins vehemently denied he was available. Bob Nightengale of USA Today noted that the Blue Jays are hopeful a long-term contract extension can be negotiated. Starting pitcher Chris Bassitt even went so far as to say in an interview with Chris Rose that he not only feels Guerrero wants to stay in Toronto for the rest of his career, but that a contract extension will come to fruition.
The biggest question in a potential contract extension is cost. Guerrero is making $19.9 million this season and has a year of arbitration remaining. He has positioned himself for a sizable raise next year, as he has posted a .316/.389/.546 batting line through Saturday in his 555 plate appearances, hitting 26 home runs and 33 doubles. Guerrero has even played third base eight times, the most appearances at the hot corner since his rookie season.
However, as mentioned on the “Blair and Barker Show” on SportsNet, first basemen don’t usually get more expensive contracts. Bryce Harper is the highest-paid first baseman, earning approximately $27.5 million per year. Harper also signed this contract as an outfielder, moving to first base for the 2023 season due to an elbow injury and the loss of Rhys Hoskins. Freddie Freeman, who earns $27 million per year through 2027, is the highest-paid player who signed his contract as a first baseman.
Jeff Blair also noted that Guerrero is unlikely to receive $30 million per year either in a contract extension with the Blue Jays or as a free agent. His time at third base this season is beneficial, as three third basemen – Anthony Rendon ($36 million), Nolan Arenado ($35 million) and Alex Bregman ($30.5 million) – have already surpassed that mark. Tim Britton of The Athletic had therefore predicted a nine-year, $250 million contract extension for Guerrero.
A few factors work in Guerrero’s favor. He’ll be just 26 in March, so the Blue Jays or another team could control him during his hypothetical prime. His strikeout, walk and hard hit rates are all well above average.
However, Guerrero is a first baseman – that alone could lead to him receiving a comparatively disappointing offer.
