Welcome to the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoffs.
In anticipation of the first four-round postseason in college football history, we’re counting down our projected playoff participants as the season approaches. The top five conference champions in the CFP Selection Committee’s rankings will advance to the playoffs, and the rest of the field will be filled by seven at-large teams. Who will lift the national championship trophy on January 20 in Atlanta?
Previous previews: No. 25-13, No. 12 Boise State, No. 11 Utah, No. 10 Florida State, No. 9 Missouri, No. 8 Michigan, No. 7 Notre Dame, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 5 Alabama, No. 4 Texas, No. 3 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia
No. 1 Ohio State
Last season in 100 words or less
The Buckeyes lost to Michigan for the third straight year. This loss tells the story of 2023 and also sets the stage for 2024. The 30-24 loss in Ann Arbor denied Ohio State a chance at the Big Ten title and the College Football Playoff.
Last season’s starting quarterback Kyle McCord was traded before the Cotton Bowl against Missouri, and the Buckeyes started Devin Brown before he was injured in the 14-3 loss. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. also missed the game after a season that made him a Heisman finalist.
Why Ohio State can make the playoffs
We’re not sure the pressure on Ohio State and head coach Ryan Day entering the 2024 season can be overstated. After a deeply unfulfilling 2023, Ohio State has geared up for a national title shot. And after the Buckeyes won the first four-team playoff, why can’t they win the first twelve-team playoff?
The ineffectiveness of Brown and Lincoln Kienholz against the Tigers in the Cotton Bowl led to Ohio State signing former Kansas State QB Will Howard through the transfer portal. Howard was a strong dual-threat QB when healthy, and he is a potential Heisman candidate in new OSU offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s offense.
Howard isn’t the only big addition in the offensive transfer portal. The Buckeyes acquired former Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins in the offseason. Judkins wasn’t as good in 2023 as he was as a rookie, but he and returning RB TreVeyon Henderson should be the best rushing duo in the country.
Replacing Harrison is difficult – after all, he was the best receiver in college football. But Emeka Egbuka is back for another season and freshman Jeremiah Smith could play a big role right away. Smith was the No. 1 recruit in the class of 2024.
We’ve established that the offense should be good. The defense should also be very, very good. Ohio State allowed just 11.2 points per game in 2023 and there will be little to no drop-off in 2024. Edge rushers Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau are back for another season after combining for 11.5 sacks last year.
The secondary is bolstered by the addition of former Alabama defensive back Caleb Downs. He played for Nick Saban as a freshman – no small feat – and will start immediately for the Buckeyes. CB Denzel Burke could have been a first-round pick had he declared for the 2024 NFL Draft, but he’s also back along with Lathan Ransom and former Ole Miss transfer Davison Igbinosun. This might be the best secondary in college football.
Key players
The Buckeyes have a backfield combination of players whose best seasons were as freshmen. Judkins ran for 1,567 yards as a freshman in 2022, and Henderson ran for 1,248 yards and 15 TDs as a freshman in 2021.
Henderson missed some time in 2023 due to an ankle injury, but still managed 926 yards on 156 carries in 10 games. He would be the best running back of over 100 college football teams. If Ohio State relies on the running game in 2024, it’s not impossible that the Buckeyes could have two 1,000-yard runners. Even if Judkins becomes the best running back, Henderson will play a crucial role for Ohio State in 2024.
Biggest game
As we said in the entry about Michigan, we won’t pretend the annual rivalry game isn’t the biggest of the season. But this game is becoming increasingly important for Day and the Buckeyes. After three straight losses — including one to an interim coach in 2023 — Ohio State must overcome the Michigan hurdle. And what better time than 2024? The game will be in Columbus and comes after three incredibly winnable games against Purdue, Northwestern and Indiana.
Ohio State also has road trips to Oregon and Penn State this season. But make no mistake, beating Michigan is a must.
