The 2023-24 season was a disappointing one for the Minnesota Wild. Almost all of Minnesota’s veteran players have deteriorated. However, many of their midfielders were the main culprits for the disappointment. Whether it was due to performance, health or effort, the Wild did not experience a particularly inspiring season from Freddy Gaudreau, Ryan Hartman and Marcus Johansson.
The Wild will need to see significant improvement from their forwards next season. The Wild have signed Yakov Trenin to give the Wild a new, tough identity and toughness.
While it’s not good practice for management to hope that experienced forwards will unexpectedly improve, Bill Guerin believes it’s one of the best ways to get his team back into the playoffs.
Although their physical strength and difficulty in playing against the Wild will help them make the playoffs next season, they still ranked 26th in goals per 60 minutes (GF/60) at the same strength last year.
But since the Wild lack salary cap space, there isn’t much room to sign a top-tier offensive player. There are rumors that the team could acquire Patrik Laine from the Columbus Blue Jackets, but that would be difficult to pull off given Laine’s hefty salary.
The Wild could try to draft a young player like Liam Ohgren in the top six, but that might be asking too much of a 20-year-old with four NHL games under his belt.
That means the Wild can only hope that this trio of middle-sixers can bounce back. But how realistic is a recovery for this group?
Marcus Johansson
Johansson spent most of last season in the Wild’s top six. The Wild put Johansson in a position where he could succeed, but it seemed like he was doing a cardio session most nights. Johansson managed just 11 goals and 30 points in 78 games last season.
To be fair, Johansson has only scored 20 or more goals three times in his career, the last time being a season in which he shot 14.29% and had his best performance during a playoff push with Matt Boldy.
Johansson won’t suddenly go back to being the player he was under Boldy. He’s fine. Johansson’s play under Boldy was fleeting – he never came anywhere close to that level last year. The 18 points in 20 games at the end of the 2022-23 season were nice, but they didn’t really reflect the value Johansson will bring going forward.
Perhaps it would be beneficial to have Johasson play on the third line, allowing him to improve his defensive game and getting him more involved at both ends of the ice. Regardless, the Wild shouldn’t automatically give Johansson that second-line left wing spot. Minnesota needs Johansson to bounce back, but it’s unreasonable to assume he’ll return to the form he had under Boldy.
Ryan Hartman
With Hartman, things are a little different. Hartman was a star and should continue to be an aggressive, playmaking striker. He didn’t take a big step back last season.
Hartman’s points per game were 0.63 in 2022-23 and 0.61 in 2023-24. He topped double-digit goals in both seasons, even scoring 21 last season. The thing is, this is a big step down from his 2022-23 season of 34 goals and 65 points when he played with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello.
Hartman reached his peak in Minnesota. Until this season with Kaprizov, Hartman had never scored in double figures and had a career-high of 22 points in Minnesota. Now that Hartman has established himself, he is a player who can play a two-way game, score 20 goals and score 40-50 points.
Even though last season was another disappointment compared to his best season with Kaprizov, it was more of a return to the status quo. We shouldn’t expect more from Hartman, and that’s OK. Hartman needs to keep doing what he’s been doing and not fall further behind.
Freddy Gaudreau
I like to pretend Gaudreau is playing for another NHL franchise, but No. 89 will be wearing green and red next season and for four more seasons. Gaudreau was largely an unproven player before joining the Wild. Guerin had a connection with him from his time with the Pittsburgh Penguins. Former Wild head coach Dean Evason had also coached him with the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL.
As a result, Gaudreau benefitted from a higher role in the lineup. As we’ve seen before, lining up Kaprizov and Zuccarello or Boldy and former Wild star Kevin Fiala typically increases the number of points a player scores each year.
Gaudreau has played two solid seasons in a row, scoring double-digit points in each season with 44 and 38 points respectively. As a result, Guerin decided to give him a five-year contract extension worth $2.1 million per season. However, that contract extension is currently looking terrible. Gaudreau has struggled with injuries and demotions, scoring just five goals and 15 points in 67 games.
Gaudreau, however, is Minnesota’s biggest comeback candidate. Hopefully he can enter this season healthy and with something to prove. He’ll likely get a chance on the third line with Marcus Foligno and Trenin, and they can form a strong two-way line.
The Wild are banking on internal improvements from these players. The chances of them improving dramatically enough to impact the Wild’s season are slim. It’s easy to see why Hartman and Johansson have slacked. Gaudreau’s performance dropped dramatically, but he was injured. Even if Gaudreau comes back healthy, a 50-point season is not expected.
None of these players will be making a comeback, except perhaps Gaudreau, so the Wild should prioritize young, inexpensive players going forward.
All statistics and data via HockeyDB, CapWages and Evolving Hockey unless otherwise noted.
