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CPC Outlook – The Michigan Weather Center

Yesterday’s high was 77° and the low was 66°. We had 1.59 inches of rain from the current system, which will gradually move out of the state today. Our total for the month is 3.10 inches and for the meteorological summer is 12.31 inches. The CPC is expecting a dry finish to August with below average precipitation and above average temperatures. Our normal highs are above 70 degrees.


CPC Outlook

CPC Outlook – The Michigan Weather Center

6th to 10th day

6 to 10 days

Temperatures in September

Precipitation in September


Weather forecast

1943: Fall is in the air with record-breaking cold temperatures of 41 degrees in Grand Rapids and 43 degrees in Muskegon.

1955: West Michigan is in the midst of another heat wave, with Grand Rapids hitting a record high of 36 degrees, helping to make this August the second hottest on record there.

On August 18, 1914, 3.73 inches of rain fell in Saginaw. This is the second highest daily amount recorded in Saginaw during August. The highest rainfall total was 6.93 inches and occurred on August 10, 2012.


NWS forecast

Today

A slight chance of rain, with a chance of rain and a thunderstorm after 11 am. Mostly cloudy, with a high around 78. North wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. A 50% chance of precipitation.

Tonight

30% chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. North wind 5 to 8 mph.

Monday

Sunny, with a high around 76. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Monday night

Clear, low around 49. North wind 5 to 7 mph, easing after midnight.

Tuesday

Sunny, high around 75 degrees. Calm, northeast wind around 6 mph in the morning.

Tuesday night

Mostly clear, low around 47.

Wednesday

Sunny, high around 76.

Wednesday night

Mostly clear, lows around 50.

Thursday

Sunny, high around 78.

Thursday night

Mostly clear, low around 54.

Friday

Mostly sunny, maximum temperature around 28 °C.

Friday night

Partly cloudy, low around 60.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, maximum temperature around 30 °C.


Discussion of the forecast

- Showers/scattered storms today, then dryer and less humid

Latest surface analysis shows low pressure over eastern Ontario
with water vapor imagery depicting a similar location for the
upper low. Minor short waves were seen in the water vapor
rotating around the upper low and these are progd to move across
the eastern cwa today.

Today will be the last we see of rain for much of the upcoming
week and will be similar to yesterday...just a bit farther east.
Instability this afternoon will be less than the last few days but
500-700 j/kg MUCAPE will be enough to support a few non severe
storms as we go through the peak heating of the afternoon. Look
for an uptick in showers/storms beginning early afternoon mainly
east of US-131. The precipitation will wane during the evening as
atmospheric stability increases and the influence of the upper low
decreases as it moves east.

High pressure will begin to move in tonight as drier air advects
south from Canada. Today will be another humid day as dewpoints
will remain around 70, but will fall into the 50s by Monday
morning. Clearing skies tonight will lead to partly sunny skies
Monday.

- Below normal temps into Wednesday, warming trend starts Thursday

Decent agreement amongst the models exists with keeping a deep
northerly flow across the region through Wednesday.  As a result
relatively cooler air from Canada will funnel down into the Great
Lakes region during this time.  Ensemble temperature plots are
fairly tight so decent confidence on the cooler than normal
temperatures exist.  A positively tilted mid level ridge approaches
from the west Thursday and tracks through the area on Friday.  Based
on this, a warming trend will develop and above normal temperatures
may arrive by Friday.  Nearly all ensemble members show no QPF so we
will keep the Tuesday through Friday period dry.

By Olivia

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