By DANIEL GRANT
FarmWeek
BLOOMINGTON – Farmers should prepare for even tighter margins and implement appropriate risk management practices based on the latest crop price estimates from the University of Illinois Farmdoc team.
Current futures levels suggest that 2024 crop yields can only be appropriately budgeted at $4 per bushel for corn and $10.50 for soybeans.
These prices would result in low yields in 2024 that would be well below those of the most recent low-price period from 2014 to 2019, according to agricultural economists from the University of Illinois Farmdoc team.
“I think we’ve now entered a period of lower yields in agriculture, just like we did in 2013 and 2014,” Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois soybean industry chairman and director of agricultural strategy, previously told FarmWeek. “The main thing we’re seeing right now is that just like we did in 2013 and 2014, rental income is high relative to cropland yield potential.”
The national corn price is currently estimated at $4.65 per bushel (the 2023 marketing year ends in August), compared to $6.54 in 2022. If it falls to $4 in 2024, it would be the lowest price since 2019 ($3.56).
The situation is similar for soybeans: the forecast price is currently $11.55 per bushel for 2024, compared to $13.76 in 2023.
At the same time, cash lease amounts rose from an average of $277 per acre statewide between 2014 and 2019 to a projected $359 per acre in 2024, an increase of $82. Costs for areas other than land rose by $185 per acre for corn and $149 for soybeans during the same period, according to data from Illinois Farm Business Farm Management.
“Current market price indicators of $4 per bushel for corn and $10.50 for soybeans are above the 2014-2019 averages,” the University of Illinois economists noted. “However, returns are likely to be much lower than they were from 2014-2019 due to higher costs.”
And don’t look now, but current futures prices suggest that cash prices at harvest could fall to around $3.80 for corn and below $10 for soybeans.
In addition, futures prices suggest average market year prices for 2025 of about $10.80 per bushel of beans, while cash prices for corn for the 2025 crop could be in the low $4.30 range.
Visit farmdocdaily.illinois.edu to read the latest report and crop budget forecasts from the University of Illinois.
(This article was distributed as part of a cooperative project between the Illinois Farm Bureau and the Illinois Press Association. For more food and agriculture news, visit FarmWeekNow.com.)
