The Arizona Diamondbacks, fresh off their sweep of the Miami Marlins, are in Boston to face the Red Sox in a crucial three-game must-win series, with first pitch this afternoon at 4:10 p.m.
The D-backs are in second place in the NL West, 4.0 games behind the Dodgers, and are in first place in the NL Wild Card race, 0.5 games ahead of the Padres. They are 3.5 games ahead of the Braves and five games ahead of the Mets.
From now on, every game must be won. The D-backs lead the majors with 17 wins and a .737% win percentage since July 29, ahead of the Padres with 15 wins and a .714% win percentage. Since July 1, the D-backs lead the majors with 17 wins and a .737% win percentage.
Majors with a record of 31-13.
The D-backs are playing their first series in Boston and at Fenway Park since 2016 and only their fifth overall. Their last win in Boston was in 2013.
The D-backs have a 31-34 record against teams with a record over .500, a stat that must improve for them to have a chance at the playoffs, and that must start now against the Red Sox, who are over .500. They rank 11th in the MLB against teams with a record over .500.
RHP Ryne Nelson, 8-6, 4.35 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 101 strikeouts in 124 innings
Nelson is still fighting for his place in the rotation, despite being the D-backs’ best starting pitcher since July 1. He’s been in top form since then and needs to get back to performing well. Tonight against the Red Sox, he’ll need his pinpoint control (only 29 walks this year).
In his start against the Rays last Friday, Nelson allowed one run in 6.1 innings and once again threw excellently.
Since July 1, Nelson has started eight times and made nine appearances. In those 56 innings, he has a 2.73 ERA and a 2.59 FIP. He has allowed just 42 hits, 17 runs and 11 walks, and struck out 55. The team has a 7-2 record during that span.
Nelson has allowed one or fewer runs in five of those starts and two or fewer runs in six of them. His mix of high fastballs and excellent control over improving off-speed pitches has been lethal to hitters. Opponents have batted just .209 against him in that range, with an OPS of .593.
In August, his opponents are hitting his four-seam fastball at a .195 average while his cutter is only averaging .111, which shows how great those two pitches have been for him this month alone.
RHP Brayan Bello, 11-5, 4.80 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 120 strikeouts in 123.2 innings
Bello started the season red hot, but like the rest of the Red Sox pitching staff, he has cooled off considerably. In his last two starts, however, he has pitched 12 innings and allowed just two runs, perhaps signaling a return to form.
Walking batters has been a big problem for Bello. He has 47 walks and a WHIP of 1.407 because he has allowed far too many baserunners. In his 23 starts, he has allowed at least three batters to walk in eight of them, including each of his last three. The D-backs hitters will have to be patient against him.
Bello has faced tough competition from left-handed hitters. Left-handed hitters have posted a .269 batting average against him, with an OPS of .841, which includes a .490 slugging percentage. 13 home runs have been hit by left-handed hitters, while six have been hit by right-handed hitters.
Bello also struggled at Fenway Park this year, posting a 5.28 ERA in his 11 games and 58 innings. He allowed 37 runs and walked 25 batters there, as his control was his biggest disadvantage that Arizona must exploit.
If they can get a handle on his sinker and avoid falling into his groundball trap (51% groundball rate), they can get a lot of counts, grab a few walks, and get runners on base for their big hitters.
The offense has been on a tear lately, leading the MLB in runs scored and runs per game. The D-backs’ 36 home runs since August 1 are the most in the major leagues. The D-backs have pitched 14 innings with 2+ runs scored in the seventh inning or later, the most in the major leagues since August 1.
With that kind of late-game offense, they’re never out of the game, especially late in a game. The D-backs’ 15 wins when trailing by 1 or more runs in the seventh inning or later are second-best in the major leagues.
Jake McCarthy has hit two home runs in his last three games and his 21 RBIs in August are second best in the MLB. He is hitting an incredible .400 in his last 23 games.
Corbin Carroll is on the roster and has an OPS of .946 in August, which ranks him 10th among MLB outfielders. He has also hit three home runs in his last six games as he has experienced a huge surge in power since the All-Star break. He has reached base in 31 consecutive starts and scored a run in 13 consecutive starts.
Joc Pederson has shown a high level of patience this year, with a 13% walk rate, above his career average of 11.5%. That’s been especially impressive lately, as he’s walked in five straight games and nine of his last 12 games. He continues to get on base regularly and improve on his already career-best OPS.
Adrian Del Castillo is the second player in MLB history to hit both a grand slam and a walk-off home run in his first nine career games. His 14 RBIs are the second most in a player’s first nine career games. In addition, his 7 hits were the most by a D-back in the first three games of his career. He will look to stay as good as he can.
Unique and historical statistics from the Arizona Diamondbacks game notes.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will need to remain patient at bat and play excellent defense to win against the Boston Red Sox tonight.
