Last week I wrote an article about false fantasy narratives. The top narrative: “Rookie receivers win fantasy football championships.”
I noticed that the receivers who were selected in the top 10 in NFL drafts this century were not a good bet for successful fantasy seasons. About 29% were at least modest successes, 35% were flops, and the rest were somewhere in between. And again, these were the crème de la crème of young players.
That’s the case closed, right? Well, in the comments, reader Alex T. wrote: “With rookie wide receivers, I always thought the idea was that they grow into their role and at the end of the season, in the fantasy playoffs, their (scoring) performance peaks and therefore they win championships. No idea if that’s the case, do you have any readily available statistics on that?”
That’s a great question, but that opinion expressed by many always seemed like BS to me. I started looking for an answer that would pass my tests for fairness and clarity. I think I’ve solved the problem via TruMedia. Since 2020, I’ve only selected rookie WRs drafted in the first and second rounds of the actual NFL Draft and looked at the group’s per-game fantasy stats from the first 10 games of their rookie year compared to their per-game stats in games 11 through 17.
If I’m right and the theory is rubbish, the group will not perform better. If the theory is correct, the group will perform significantly better later in their rookie seasons. That’s the critical period in the final stretch of our fantasy season and in our fantasy playoffs.
By looking at per-game stats rather than just counting points, we can solve the problem of confusing an increase in mere playing time with improved performance. Finally, in our fantasy drafts, we prioritize rookies who have real draft capital and are expected to play right away. The “linear progression theory,” to put it in a phrase, says that beyond that, they will continually improve through December.
The five-year sample includes 41 receivers since 2020 who met our NFL Draft requirements as first- or second-round picks.
Here are the results:
The group average for Games No. 1-10 was 8.5 games, 29.4 catches, 382 yards and 2.2 TDs, which equates to 3.5 catches – 45 yards – 0.31 TDs per game.
In Games No. 11-17The same group averaged 5.9 games, 20.4 catches, 258 yards, and 1.6 TDs, which equates to virtually identical 3.5 catches, 44 yards, and 0.27 TDs per game.
That’s 9.86 points per game in the 10 games for the rookie group studied and 9.52 points per game in games 11-17.
Remember, we don’t care what feels true, we only care about what is actually true. There is no evidence that rookie wide receivers in general can be expected to get better over the course of their rookie season.
I expect some of you to point out exceptions in the comments. “Rashee Rice was so much better at the end of the season…” Fine. But if there was no general effect, we would still expect someone to perform much better later than earlier. Just as we wouldn’t dismiss the concept if there was a general trend of rookie receivers getting better just because some receivers aren’t, or are even getting worse.
Are there exceptions? Of course. But exceptions don’t prove or disprove the rule. If rookie WRs got better over the course of our seasons, we’d see the group trend. We don’t. I can speculate why. Maybe these rookies are reaching their limits because they’ve never played as many games in a season. Maybe they’re more physically banged up later in the year and don’t know how to play through it like veterans. Maybe defenses are adjusting to their strengths and they’re not savvy enough to counter it yet. The bottom line is that a reasonable theory has been put forward — first-year players get better as the season goes on. It seems so obvious that few have bothered to test and prove it. Just because we can’t find any right now doesn’t mean it’s not true. A lack of evidence is not proof of absence… and so on. But we shouldn’t pay for it.
Who are we talking about in the draft this year and what is their ADP this weekend at the NFFC? Here are April’s first and second round draft picks and where they landed in over 70 fantasy drafts this past weekend.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals, WR8)
- Malik Nabers (Giants, WR19)
- Rom Odunze (Bears, WR41)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars, WR44)
- Xavier Worthy (Chiefs, WR37)
- Ricky Pearsall (49ers, WR76)
- Xavier Legette (Panthers, WR70)
- Keon Coleman (Bills, WR48)
- Ladd McConkey (Chargers, WR45)
- Ja’Lynn Polk (Patriots, WR66)
- Adonai Mitchell (Colts, WR62)
I suspect that at least some of the draft capital invested in Harrison and Nabers is based on the expectation that they will peak in the final stretch of our fantasy seasons, and that’s what we’ll hear if their starts aren’t as stellar as their price tag demands.
I expect to be asked about rookies drafted as high as Harrison and Nabers. So here are just the top 10 NFL draft picks since 2000. It’s only five players, so does that mean anything? Probably not. But they averaged 13.0 PPR PPG in games 1-10 and 14.2 PPR PPG in games 11-17. The group consists of Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith. That’s 9% better on average. But again, if that were true across the board, it would apply to the larger sample, not just the smaller one. But I’m noting it for completeness.
(Top photo of Ladd McConkey: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY)
