Swampcast talks about the opening game between Florida and Miami and predictions for 2024
In this week’s Swampcast, Kevin Brockway and David Whitley of The Sun join The Athletic’s Manny Navarro to discuss the start of college football and the Florida-Miami game.
- FSU’s loss brought Florida fans a brief moment of joy, but gloating is delicious but empty bread. It’s time to beat someone, Gators.
- Why is Billy Napier on the hot seat? A 1-7 record against rivals doesn’t help. Games against Miami, UCF and FSU will be crucial.
- Florida’s government is in transition. That could benefit Billy Napier.
The last three football seasons in Florida have been so bleak for Gators fans that an overdose of schadenfreude gave rise to celebration.
Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday was the best thing to happen to Gator Nation since Netflix’s eulogy documentary about the Urban Meyer era.
“Hahahaha FSU just lost! Let’s all laugh at them,” one Gators fan wrote online.
When the laughter from Gators fans finally subsided, Florida was still on a five-game losing streak dating back to October, and the team had won just 17 of its last 41 games.
Schadenfreude offers a pleasant distraction. But it is not a solution.
For embattled Florida coach Billy Napier to survive this season, he must give Gators fans opportunities to revel in their successes when they’re not laughing at their rivals’ slip-ups.
Let me be clear: If Napier can’t compete against UF’s in-state rivals in year three, Florida can’t justify keeping him for a fourth season.
The challenge begins Saturday when the Gators host No. 19 Miami.
Miami is only a 2.5-point favorite despite being ranked among the top teams in the ACC. The media projected Florida to finish 12th in the SEC. The narrow betting spread is a testament to the perceived strength of the SEC and the wildness of the swamp.
“93,000 of our best friends will be out there,” Napier said. “We want to create a nightmare for our opponent.”
Florida’s schedule threatens to be a nightmare. The Gators are the only SEC team to face 11 Power Four opponents. They are also the only SEC team to have three in-state rivals on their schedule.
Napier has improved the squad. A number of transfers have boosted the squad list and it is now in its best shape since 2020. However, the fixture list is one of the toughest in the country.
“We have a game plan that could put us right in the middle of the competition,” he said.
That’s an optimistic projection based on the assumption that Florida will come up with a solid schedule. The Gators could also post a 3-9 record, allowing Napier to add Buyout Beach to his GPS.
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Rivalry games offer an important chance to shift perceptions. Playoff qualification is a pipe dream, but if Florida beats Miami, UCF and FSU, the Gators are well on their way to bowl eligibility and a record that I think would earn Napier another season.
Alternatively, defeats due to rivalries within the state could prove fatal for Napier.
Ron Zook went 1-4 overall against Miami and FSU. Florida fired him during his third season. He was a lame-duck coach the only time he beat FSU.
Napier is happy about something Zook didn’t like: a severance package that will still be over $25 million in December.
He is also benefiting from the transitional state of Florida government. The university brought Kent Fuchs out of the bullpen as interim president after Ben Sasse resigned in July for health reasons. Fuchs was president of UF when Florida hired Napier.
Interim presidents are more often tasked with keeping the power on than changing the power company. In other words, this would not be an ideal time for a coaching change in football. Normally, an athletic director would lead the coaching search, but why would AD Scott Stricklin lead another search?
Stricklin hired Dan Mullen, fired him, and hired Napier. That’s not baseball. ADs have a two-strike rule and you’re out. If Napier fails, he and Stricklin should help each other pack up.
Napier’s hot seat became the undercurrent of Florida’s offseason. Although no reporter explicitly mentioned the word “hot seat” during his press conference on Monday, several questions alluded to the importance of this Miami game for Napier and his program.
He desperately needs to beat a rival. He is 1-7 against Tennessee, Georgia, LSU and FSU. The only win came in September 2023 at The Swamp against the Vols.
Napier will need to perform well enough against his rivals this season for Fuchs to ignore the talk of the hot seat and still ensure the lights come on every morning.
FSU’s misery in Week 0 will neither save Napier nor satisfy the appetite of Florida fans. Schadenfreude provides delicious but empty calories. A win against Miami, UCF and FSU would offer Napier a future.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s SEC columnist. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
Subscribe to read all his columns. Also listen to his podcast SEC Football Unfiltered., and newsletter, SEC Unfiltered.
