Ukrainian forces invaded southwestern Russia in a surprise attack on August 6 and, according to the Ukrainian army chief, have controlled nearly 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory since this week.
According to experts, the outcome of this move is still unclear. They add, however, that it was extremely successful: on the one hand, it gave Ukraine the initiative and, on the other, embarrassed Russia.
Ukrainian Armed Forces during military operations in Malaya Loknya, Kursk, August 20, 2024. 95th Air Assault Brigade/Handout via REUTERS
They also said that Ukraine would have been even more successful if the restrictions imposed on it by many of its key allies, including the United States, had been lifted.
This would have enabled Ukraine to use the long-range missiles it supplied to attack targets in Russia.
Rajan Menon, a scholar at Columbia University’s Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, said the use of these weapons would help Ukraine “by disrupting logistics, hitting airfields, munitions, supplies, oil and lubricants.”
He added that Ukraine has attacked some of these targets with drones, but if it succeeds in doing so on a larger scale with Western weapons, it would make the situation even more difficult for Russia.
Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider that Russia has deployed troops to the region and that Ukraine’s use of missiles hitting roads and intersections could disrupt those efforts.
A Ukrainian soldier hides behind a tree when he hears a roar in Sudzha, Russia, August 16, 2024. aras Ibragimov/Suspilne Ukraine/JSC “UA:PBC”/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
Restriction of Ukraine
While countries like the United States have lifted some restrictions on Ukraine’s use of its weapons against targets in Russia, the restrictions that remain mean the country cannot use some of its most powerful weapons, including Storm Shadow/SCALP and ATACMS missiles, against the sources of Russian attacks.
“If we let the Ukrainians benefit from using these missiles, it would actually help the Kursk campaign,” said George Barros, a Russia analyst at the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War.
Barros added that Ukraine would have to devote significant resources to protecting its power, infrastructure and weapons from attack, whereas “the Russians basically don’t really have to deal with any of that.”
Ukraine has repeatedly called on its allies to lift the restrictions, saying they would significantly complicate its defense.
In fact, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated on August 19 that Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk would not have been necessary if its allies had already lifted their restrictions.
He said the incursion was aimed at creating a buffer zone to prevent further Russian attacks on neighboring parts of Ukraine.
A still from a video shared by the Ukrainian military of ATACMS in action. General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Screenshot via X
Zelensky also said Ukraine’s success in Kursk showed that Western fears that Russia would escalate the conflict if its perceived red lines were crossed were unfounded.
Meanwhile, war analysts have already said BI that by invading Kursk, Ukraine probably wanted to demobilise Russian forces and give new motivation to its troops and allies.
Barros said it was unclear how the rapidly advancing operation would end or what Russia and Ukraine would do next.
However, he said it was an incentive for Ukraine to have taken the initiative after being stuck in a largely defensive position for months.
“Ukrainians are no longer lying around for nine months at a time, just trying their best to resolve the emergency,” he said.
Menon described it as a “moment of embarrassment” for Russia, as its response in both evacuating people and dealing with the incursion was “catastrophic”.
“I mean, there’s just no other way to put it,” he said.
