Voters in Maricopa County, the largest county in the US swing state of Arizona, will play a key role in deciding whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins the White House in November.
Here are five important facts about the county:
– America’s hottest city –
Phoenix, the capital of the state of Arizona, is located in Maricopa County. The average maximum temperature here is above 37.7 degrees Celsius for four months of the year.
The sun-drenched metropolis got its name in the late 19th century after it was founded on the ruins of an ancient native civilization. The small settlement in the northern Sonoran Desert was worth just $550 after the American Civil War.
Thanks to irrigation, Phoenix developed from a sleepy frontier town of saguaro cacti into a center for citrus, cattle ranching, and cotton. The hot, dry climate later made the city a magnet for tuberculosis patients.
After World War II, immigrants, retirees, and young families flocked to the area in search of warm weather and a low cost of living, causing the population to increase dramatically, partly due to the introduction of air conditioning.
Phoenix is now the fifth-largest city in the country, overtaking Philadelphia. According to the latest U.S. Census, more than 1.6 million Americans live in this financial services and manufacturing hub.
– Historically republican –
The district, which is home to about 4.5 million people, or 62 percent of Arizona’s population, is the second-largest electoral district in the country and was until recently a reliable Republican stronghold.
“The truly significant election, in my opinion, was 2016, when Trump won the district by just three percentage points. Four years earlier, Mitt Romney won by 11 percentage points,” said David Berman, professor emeritus of political science at Arizona State University.
President Joe Biden defeated Trump in Maricopa County by more than 45,000 votes in 2020, ending a nearly eight-decade winning streak for Republican presidential candidates in Arizona.
Berman said Trump’s right-wing agenda has alienated some Arizonans who prefer more centrist Republicans, such as the late U.S. Senator John McCain.
– Hispanic population growing –
According to the most recent census, the Hispanic population in Maricopa County has grown to nearly a third of all residents.
This change is part of a larger trend driven in part by increasing immigration. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of Hispanic residents in Arizona grew by 16 percent — faster than the state’s overall population growth.
“There has been a concentrated effort to mobilize both Hispanic and Native American voters,” Berman said of the groups more likely to vote Democratic.
He added that there had also been “some successes for the Democrats” as people from traditionally more liberal states like California continued to move to Arizona in search of cheaper housing and better job opportunities.
– Increasingly independent –
Despite Arizona’s Republican electoral history and recent Democratic successes, more than a third of Maricopa County residents do not belong to either party.
According to the county’s latest data, about 34 percent of active voters are registered as “other” – rivaling Republicans, who reach 35 percent, and surpassing Democrats, who reach 28 percent.
This proportion has steadily increased in recent years, making the district’s election results more unpredictable.
“Maricopa County still has a fairly high percentage of red voters, and these swing voters are generally more likely to choose the more traditional Republicans” rather than Trump’s far-right brand, says Paul Bentz, senior vice president at Phoenix-based public affairs firm Highground.
“We are not a purple state,” he said, referring to an area evenly mixed between Republican red and Democratic blue.
“We are a red state with purple spots.”
– Early voting dominates –
About 80 percent of the county’s voters cast their ballots early in 2020 and 2022, consistent with a statewide trend that existed before the coronavirus pandemic.
“We’ve been doing this for over three decades. The Republicans are the ones who brought early voting to the state of Arizona,” Bentz said.
In 1991, the state legislature allowed voters to request a mail-in ballot for any reason, making the practice widespread. More than a decade later, Arizona created a program that automatically mails voters a ballot for each upcoming election.
The increase in mail-in voting since the pandemic has made verifying and counting votes a days-long process, with most U.S. news outlets taking more than a week to call the state for Biden in 2020.
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