By Stephen Beech on SWNS
A new study warns that the world is facing a timber crisis as climate change pushes farmland ever northward.
As a result of global warming, the areas suitable for growing food and timber will shift and shrink – putting the production of these two vital resources in direct competition with each other, say scientists at the University of Cambridge.
If no action is taken to combat climate change, a quarter of the world’s forest area – the size of India – will be better suited to agriculture by the end of the century, the new report says.
The Cambridge team points out that the once rare sight of vineyards is becoming more common in the UK as hotter summers create increasingly favourable conditions for growing wine.
But behind this “success story,” according to them, lies a sobering story: climate change is changing the regions of the world suitable for growing agricultural products.
The team has encountered a looming problem: as land suitable for food production moves further north, there will be a “bottleneck” in the land we need to grow trees.
The wood these trees produce is the basis of much of modern life – from paper and cardboard to furniture and buildings.
The Cambridge team says that increasing competition between land for timber and food production due to climate change has been overlooked until now – but it will become a new problem as demand for both continues to rise.
Even in the worst-case scenario of climate change, where no action is taken to decarbonize society, the new study found that by the end of the century, more than a quarter of existing forest land – around 320 million hectares, the size of India – will be more suitable for agriculture.
Most forests for timber production are currently located in the Northern Hemisphere in the USA, Canada, China and Russia.
The study found that 90 percent of all currently managed forest land used for agriculture by 2100 will be in these four countries.
In particular, tens of millions of hectares of wood-producing land throughout Russia are being made available for agriculture – more than in the USA, Canada and China combined – and conditions for growing potatoes, soybeans and wheat are becoming more favourable.
Study co-leader Dr Oscar Morton said: “There is only a limited amount of suitable land on Earth on which we can produce food and timber – two vital resources for society.
“As climate change worsens and agriculture is forced to expand northward, pressure on timber production will increase.”
Co-author Dr Chris Bousfield said: “We need to think 50 years ahead because if we want wood in the future, we need to plant it now.”
“The trees that will be cut down by the end of this century are already in the ground. Their cycles are much slower than those of crops.”
According to a report published in the journal Nature Climate Change, global food demand is expected to double by 2050 due to population growth and increasing prosperity.
Global demand for wood is also expected to double over the same period, mainly because wood represents a low-carbon alternative to concrete and steel in construction.
Shifting timber production deeper into boreal or tropical forests is not a viable option because the trees in these regions have stood untouched for thousands of years and cutting them down would release enormous amounts of carbon and threaten biodiversity.
Lead author of the study, Professor David Edwards, said: “A major environmental risk from increasing competition for land between agriculture and forestry is that timber production will be shifted to remaining primary forest areas in the tropics or boreal zones.
“These are the epicenters of the world’s remaining wilderness, and pristine tropical forests are the most biodiverse places on Earth. Preventing further spread is critical.”
The Cambridge team used satellite data showing intensive forestry around the world and overlaid it with predictions of which land areas would be suitable for growing the world’s major crops – including rice, wheat, corn, soy and potatoes – in the future under different climate change scenarios.
Even in the best-case scenario in which the world achieves net-zero targets, the researchers say there will still be “significant” changes in the future in regions suitable for wood and crop production.
Wood production currently contributes over $1.5 trillion annually to the global economy.
However, heat waves and forest fires have recently led to enormous losses of timber forests around the world.
The Cambridge team says climate change is also facilitating the spread of pests such as bark beetles that attack trees.
It is assumed that global warming will cause tropical regions to become too hot and uninhabitable for growing food and that large parts of southern Europe will become significantly less suitable for food and timber production.
Dr Bousfield said: “Climate change is already posing challenges to timber production.
“On top of that, there will now be increasing pressure from the agricultural sector, which will create a perfect storm of problems.”
Dr Morton added: “Securing our future timber supplies may not seem as urgent as securing the food we need to eat and survive.
“But wood is also integrated into our daily lives and we need to develop strategies to ensure both food and wood security in the future.”
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