With the upcoming presidential election, many Americans are concerned about the impact the next U.S. president will have on the economy, particularly with regard to inflation.
“Historically, new governments have had limited impact on inflation in the short term,” said Lauryn Grayes, founder of Wealth Gems Financial. “However, the type of policies pursued can have an impact on inflation over time.”
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With Donald Trump and Kamala Harris currently the most likely candidates, the question on everyone’s mind is: who will be better for the economy and inflation? To get a better idea of what people think, GOBankingRates conducted a survey of over 1,000 American adults.
Here’s who Americans think is better for the U.S. economy and inflation, and what their top concerns are this election cycle.
Which presidential candidate’s policies could have the greatest economic benefit?
According to our survey, the following people believe the economy will benefit most if they are elected president in November:
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38.55% of respondents believe that Donald Trump will have a better impact on the economy;
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43.82% of respondents believe that Kamala Harris will have a better impact on the economy;
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3.39% of respondents were more ambivalent and believed that either candidate could be equally good for the economy;
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6.57% of respondents said they do not think either candidate is good for the economy.
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7.67% of respondents were not sure who would be better.
The answers were further broken down by age:
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Age 18 to 24: More respondents said Trump would have a better impact on the economy (40% versus 37%).
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Age 25 to 34: The majority believe that Harris will be more beneficial to the economy (44% versus 37%).
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Age 35 to 44: Most respondents believe Harris will have a positive impact on the economy (44% versus 37%).
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Age 55 to 64: About 44 percent of respondents believe Harris will have a positive impact on the economy (compared to the 36 percent who chose Trump).
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From 65 years: Here the gap was somewhat smaller, but the majority of respondents said Harris’ policies would have a better impact on the economy (47% versus 41%).
Ultimately, more respondents ages 25 and older said they think Kamala Harris would be better for the economy. More younger respondents – between 18 and 24 – said the opposite, although the majority preferring Trump to Harris was small.
The answers were further broken down by gender:
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35% of women believe Trump’s policies are good for the economy, while 43% believe Harris is the better choice.
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Forty-two percent of men said Trump’s policies are likely to be more beneficial to the economy, while 45 percent think Harris is the better choice.
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Americans’ biggest concerns this election cycle
The GOBankingRates survey also asked Americans what economic and financial issues are most important to them in the 2024 election cycle. These are the overall results.
Inflation: 49.20%
Inflation is by far the biggest concern for many Americans this year. That’s not surprising, considering how much inflation affects the cost of living.
The Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate is 2% because it can lead to price stability. Higher inflation leads to more expensive services and goods and lower purchasing power – especially if wages do not rise proportionately.
Although the President has no control over inflation, he can influence it.
“For example, large increases in government spending that are not matched by tax increases could fuel demand-led inflation,” said Grayes. “Restrictive trade policies could also lead to higher consumer prices.”
On the other hand, Grayes noted that any measure that promotes production and the efficiency of the economy could help regulate inflation.
Social Security and Medicare: 26.89%
The second biggest concern for many Americans is Social Security and Medicare. Both programs will face a funding shortfall over the next decade. Unless significant changes are made, the people who rely on these programs could face significant financial consequences — that is, reduced financial support.
Under the Biden-Harris administration, the goal is to increase Social Security’s solvency by getting higher earners to pay more taxes – their “fair share,” as the White House letter puts it. The president’s budget is also designed to expand and strengthen Medicare.
It is unclear whether Harris will continue to support these initiatives if elected, but if she does, it could prove beneficial to those who rely on these programs for financial stability.
Other important economic/financial concerns
Other major concerns for many Americans are:
As with inflation, Social Security and Medicare, the President can influence these areas both indirectly and directly.
According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve, government spending has minimal to no effect on inflation. It’s possible that a 10% increase in government spending could actually lead to a 0.08% decrease in inflation.
Next come healthcare costs. These have increased significantly over the years. According to the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, the cost of medical care – including services, drugs, medical equipment and insurance – has increased 121.3% since 2000. During that period, inflation rose 86.1%.
As for unemployment, it usually falls when inflation rises. The opposite is also true: in times of low inflation, there are more unemployed people. According to BLS data, the national unemployment rate is currently 4.3%.
Regardless of who is elected president, Grayes had this to say: “As an economist focused on small business growth, I believe the next president should prioritize policies that directly support entrepreneurs and small businesses.”
This type of support could create more jobs, reduce unemployment and, depending on the level of wages the new jobs bring, ease the financial burden on many Americans.
Editor’s Note on Election Coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to objectively cover all aspects of the economy and present balanced reporting on politically focused financial topics. For more coverage on this topic, visit GOBankingRates.com.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: Trump vs. Harris: Here’s who Americans think is better for the economy and inflation
