Saildrone sails into the big waves of Hurricane Ernesto
The Saildrone Explorer intercepted Hurricane Ernesto on August 15 and filmed high seas with an average height of the top third of the waves of 26.5 feet.
Provided by Saildrone and NOAA
The National Hurricane Center reported that Hurricane Ernesto made landfall in Bermuda at 4:30 a.m. Saturday, bringing Category 1 winds of 85 mph from a system weakened by drier air.
The Atlantic island is expected to experience strong winds throughout Saturday, bringing heavy rain that could lead to flash flooding.
According to forecasts, Ernesto will bring dangerous waves and life-threatening rip currents to Florida and the entire east coast of the USA by the weekend.
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In its 5 p.m. Saturday forecast, the National Hurricane Center said the eye of Hurricane Ernesto is slowly moving away from Bermuda. A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the island, and the storm is expected to circle near the island for most of Saturday, move out early Sunday and maintain a north-northeast track as a hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean for the next few days.
The formation of the latest storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season occurred just over a week after Hurricane Debby made landfall at Big Bend in Florida on Monday, August 5.
What is the short-term hurricane forecast?
There are no dangers in sight in Ernesto’s wake, according to Ryan Truchelut, a Florida meteorologist who works for the USA TODAY Network.
“Although many factors favor the formation of storms, the Atlantic is still flooded with enough dry air and Saharan dust to bleed out tropical waves. This should change sometime in the last week of August,” predicts Truchelut.
National Hurricane Center launches new “cone of concern” with Hurricane Ernesto
The National Hurricane Center released its new “cone of concern” for Hurricane Ernesto on Thursday, August 14.
For Ernesto, you won’t notice much difference between the original cone and the new one, as one of the biggest differences is that the new cone shows wind warnings for inland counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones are visible on the Hurricane Center website. The new cone can be found by going to the graphics page for Hurricane Ernesto and then clicking on the new experimental cone highlighted in red.
Differences you will see:
- Observations and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
- White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white dots for the four- and five-day forecast.
Hurricane Ernesto: What you need to know
- Location: 85 miles northeast of Bermuda; 1,090 miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland
- Maximum sustained winds: 75 miles per hour
- Movement: North-Northeast at 6 miles per hour
- Next note: 8pm
Watch and warning issued for Florida, USA
No warnings or alerts directly related to Hurricane Ernesto have been issued for Florida. However, rip currents and small craft warnings have been issued along most of Florida’s coastline as Ernesto’s swell reaches shore.
A tropical storm warning has been issued for:
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.
Stakeholders in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor Ernesto’s progress.
How strong is Hurricane Ernesto and where is it heading?
As of 5:00 p.m. AST on Saturday, the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 33.3 degrees north and longitude 64.0 degrees west.
Ernesto has lost speed during the afternoon and is currently moving northeast at about 6 mph.
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Spaghetti models for Hurricane Ernesto
Special note on spaghetti models: The figures show a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are the same. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best performing models for its forecasts.
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Expected impacts of Hurricane Ernesto on Florida
Beachgoers on the US east coast must expect a “high risk of dangerous surf rip currents” through the weekend, the Hurricane Center said.
Swell was expected to persist along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. This swell is likely to create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. This swell is expected along the entire U.S. coast and into Atlantic Canada.
“Entering the dangerous surf is strongly advised against,” said the National Weather Service Melbourne.
These conditions have already resulted in fatalities on the US coast.
Two people died in separate surf incidents on Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, on Friday. The National Weather Service Charleston said the emergency management agency reported a rip current death at 10:22 a.m. Friday at Forest Beach and another at 3:22 p.m. Friday at Folly Field Beach.
Impact of Ernesto Florida: Hurricane Ernesto could disrupt your Florida beach plans. Here’s the schedule and what to expect
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Ernesto
- Ernesto is moving slowly, and its impact on Bermuda is not over yet. Strong winds, heavy rains, coastal flooding and violent winds are likely through tonight. The heavy rains will likely cause significant, life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas of the island.
- Although Ernesto is forecast to remain well off the U.S. East Coast, swells caused by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through early next week. Beachgoers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip current conditions and should avoid the water if advised to do so by lifeguards. Surf and rip current conditions are also possible in the Bahamas, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada over the next few days.
- Ernesto could bring wind, waves and rain to much of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and into Monday night.
Radar: Watch Hurricane Ernesto approach Bermuda
What else is there and how likely is it that there will be an increase?
The National Hurricane Center reported no further disruptions as of 5 a.m. Saturday.
Interactive map: Which tropical storms and hurricanes have hit your region in the past?
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is September 10, with peak activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Heavy rainfall forecast
What happens next?
We’ll continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local website’s app to make sure you’re always up to date with the news. And look out for our special subscription offers here.
Contributor: Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA TODAY
