He won’t be named American League MVP—barring unforeseen circumstances, the great Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees will likely win that award again—but Jarren Duran is having a special season.
How special? If the Red Sox outfielder maintains his current pace, this season could be one of the best in franchise history.
At the time of this writing, Duran is on pace to finish the season with the following totals: 162 games played, 758 batting appearances, 113 runs, 202 hits, 51 doubles, 19 triples, 20 home runs, 84 RBI, 39 stolen bases, 58 walks, 90 extra-base hits and 351 total bases. His slash line is .292/.349/.506 and his Wins Above Replacement is 6.4, suggesting a season-ending grade of 9.5 or better could be realistic.
No one in MLB history has ever achieved all of these marks in a single season, and most of these totals, individually, would rank near the top of any franchise’s single-season all-time list.
Let’s start with the hits. In Red Sox history, there have been 28 seasons with 200 or more hits. Wade Boggs has seven of them, including the franchise record of 240 in a season in 1985. Interestingly, Ted Williams never had a 200-hit season in his career.
There have also only been 10 seasons in Red Sox history with over 50 doubles. Earl Webb holds the record with 67 in 1931, and Nomar Garciaparra is second with 56 in 2002.
If Duran hits 19 triples, he would be the first Red Sox player to reach that mark in 110 years. There have only been six seasons in franchise history with 19 or more triples, the last of which was in 1914 by Larry Gardner. The franchise record is held by Tris Speaker with 22 in 1913.
Of course, many Red Sox players have hit 20 home runs, but there have only been 12 seasons in franchise history with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases. There have also only been three 20-30 seasons, and if Duran can get 40 steals, he has a chance to become the first Red Sox player to ever have a 20-40 season. There was one 40-20 season, however, thanks to Carl Yastrzemski in 1970.
If Duran were to record 40 steals, it would also be the 10th such season in franchise history. Jacoby Ellsbury and Tris Speaker account for more than half of that with three steals each.
But how about this? Only three Red Sox players have ever reached 90 extra-base hits in a season: Jimmie Foxx (92 in 1938), David Ortiz (91, 2004) and Rafael Devers (90, 2019). Duran has a chance to become the fourth.
All of these stats assume Duran can maintain his Ironman streak and play all 162 games. Only five Red Sox players have ever played 162 games in a season, and Dwight Evans is the only one to do so twice. Jim Rice actually played 163 games in 1978, a feat that was possible because the infamous play-in game between the Red Sox and Yankees was considered a regular season game, something the current playoff format no longer allows.
But if Duran plays all 162 games, he has a good chance of setting a new club record for most batting appearances in a season. At his current pace, he would match Wade Boggs’ current mark of 758, and only Boggs, Dom DiMaggio and Mo Vaughn have ever topped 750.
Advanced metrics don’t go back as far as most traditional statistics, and defensive numbers are generally less reliable, but it’s also worth noting that Duran currently ranks second among all MLB outfielders with 16 defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs. That should make him a strong candidate for a Gold Glove, and if he wins, he would be just the 11th Red Sox outfielder to win the award.
In conclusion, WAR is not a perfect tool, but it does a good job of accounting for all aspects of the game. For those who aren’t familiar, the number represents how many wins a given player is worth compared to a replacement-level player. A WAR of 2.0 or better is roughly equivalent to a starter, a 5.0 or better to an All-Star, and 8.0 or better indicates MVP-level performance.
Duran’s current mark of 6.4 is already well above the All-Star threshold – let’s not forget he just won the All-Star MVP award last month – and he’s currently on pace to become the seventh position player in Red Sox history to record a 9.0 WAR season. If he does that, he’d be in great company, joining Ted Williams (6 times), Carl Yastrzemski (3), Mookie Betts (2), Tris Speaker (2), Babe Ruth, Wade Boggs and Rico Petrocelli (1 each).
With the exception of Petrocelli, all of these guys are current or future Hall of Fame members.
Of course, there are still nearly two months of play to go, but what Duran has accomplished so far is remarkable. When Duran struggled in his first two major league seasons, even the biggest optimist couldn’t have predicted such a breakthrough, and if he can finish strong, Duran’s 2024 season could be among the best in franchise history.
White Sox end losing streak
It’s finally over.
After going nearly a month without a win, the Chicago White Sox finally ended their longest MLB losing streak in 36 years on Tuesday when they beat the Oakland Athletics 5-1 to end their 21-game losing streak.
In doing so, they avoided setting a new record for sustained futility in the American League. Instead, they share the record with the 1988 Baltimore Orioles, who also lost 21 games in a row.
The White Sox losing streak lasted from July 10 to August 5 and included the final four games before the All-Star break and the first 17 games afterward. Chicago finished 27-88, giving the White Sox 38 wins. That would be the lowest winning streak ever by an MLB team in a 162-game season and the lowest overall (excluding during a pandemic or a strike-shortened season) since the Philadelphia Athletics went 36-104 in 1919.
The 1924 White Sox and the 1988 Orioles do not hold the record for the longest losing streaks in MLB overall. The 1961 Philadelphia Phillies lost 23 consecutive games, which has stood as the National League record since 1900. The all-time major league record was set by the 1889 Louisville Colonials, who played in the American Association and lost 26 consecutive games, resulting in a 27-111 season.
No no-go for Valdez
Framber Valdez already had one no-hitter to his name, and for a while on Tuesday night it looked as if the Houston Astros star was about to pitch his second.
Then, after two outs in the ninth inning, Corey Seager stepped up to bat and spoiled the party.
Seager hit a two-run home run to end Valdez’s attempt at a second career no-go, leaving Valdez to settle for the win in an otherwise dominant game. Valdez easily went the first eight innings, striking out five players before finally allowing three walks and the home run.
Two of those walks came in the ninth inning. The first proved inconsequential, as Valdez immediately followed it up with a double play to empty the bases, but the second was costly, as it extended the game and forced Seager to bat.
Believe it or not, Tuesday wasn’t the first time the five-time All-Star blew a no-hitter.
Eight years ago, on August 25, 2016, Seager stepped up to bat under almost identical circumstances while playing for the Los Angeles Dodgers. With two outs in the ninth inning, left-hander Matt Moore of the San Francisco Giants was one out away from a no-no before Seager hit a single to right field.
According to MLB.com, Seager is the only player in league history to stop multiple no-hitters with two outs in the ninth inning.
Merloni and Papelbon play at Oldtime Game
Former Red Sox stars Lou Merloni and Jonathan Papelbon will both play in the upcoming 30th annual Oldtime Baseball Game, which will be held on Thursday, August 22, at St. Peter’s Field in Cambridge.
Founded in 1994, the Oldtime Baseball Game features reproductions of flannel uniforms representing every era of baseball history. Retro games include teams such as the St. Louis Browns, Brooklyn Dodgers and Philadelphia Athletics, Negro League clubs such as the Kansas City Monarchs and a host of others.
For the second year in a row, the game will be a fundraiser for The Boston Home, a nonprofit residential home and national center for adults with advanced neurological diseases, primarily multiple sclerosis.
Merloni, who played six seasons with the Red Sox and is now a television and radio host, will also receive the Greg Montalbano Award in 2024, which is given in memory of the late Red Sox pitcher candidate who appeared twice in the Oldtime Baseball Game and died of cancer in 2009 at age 31.
The game will also remember five longtime fans who passed away in the last year — former Red Sox pitcher Tim Wakefield, longtime Cambridge Parks and Recreation director Paul Ryder, local business owner Dave Leibovitz, ESPN columnist Jim Caple and Cambridge native Paul Monagle. Leibovitz and his wife long took care of the game’s uniforms and Monagle was a prolific fundraiser whose son and nephew were regulars as batboys and later as players.
Admission to the Oldtime Baseball Game is free. Fans should bring a beach blanket or chair to watch from the free throw lines. For more information, visit oldtimebaseball.com or thebostonhome.org.
