A new hurricane could form in the Atlantic later this week, but an initial forecast suggests that it could avoid the US mainland.
The National Hurricane Center began issuing warnings on Sunday for a system in the central Atlantic that it calls a “potential tropical cyclone #5.”
The Hurricane Center classifies systems as “potential tropical cyclones” when they are not sufficiently organized to be considered tropical depressions or storms, but could have some of the same effects on land areas.
Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 could organize and strengthen into Tropical Storm Ernesto by Monday evening and Hurricane Ernesto by Wednesday.
The hurricane center’s initial forecast keeps potential Ernesto away from the U.S. east coast.
However, as a strengthening tropical storm, it could come very close to Puerto Rico on Wednesday.
As of Sunday afternoon, no alerts had been issued for the island, but more may be issued later this evening.
However, tropical storm warnings are currently in effect for parts of the Leeward Islands.
As of 4:00 p.m. CDT Sunday, Potential Tropical Cyclone #5 was located about 950 miles east-southeast of Antigua and was moving rapidly to the west-northwest at 21 mph.
The disturbance had sustained winds of 30 mph, the hurricane center said. It needs a defined circulation center and winds of at least 39 mph to be classified as a tropical storm and get a name. The next name on the 2024 Atlantic storm list is Ernesto.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Martin and Sint Maarten.
The hurricane center said residents of the Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should keep an eye on the storm. Those areas could be placed under watch tonight or Monday.
The current forecast from the hurricane center has the potential Ernesto moving through the Leeward Islands and then near Puerto Rico. Its potential path could then shift northward before reaching the Bahamas.
The storm could continue north and stay well east of the US East Coast, but could put pressure on Bermuda. However, it is too early to say for sure if Bermuda will be affected.
The storm could bring 10 to 15 centimeters of rain to the northern Leeward Islands and 7.5 to 15 centimeters to Puerto Rico.
Since Sunday, there have been no further potential storms in the Atlantic basin.
