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NHC warns of rough surf as Tropical Storm Ernesto moves north

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More than 24 hours after Hurricane Ernesto made landfall in Bermuda, the now downgraded Tropical Storm Ernesto continued to move with winds of 70 mph (110 km/h) and continued to generate dangerous waves that made conditions on beaches life-threatening.

The National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. Sunday report said conditions on East Coast beaches, including surf rip currents, will persist for the next few days. The NHC warned people on the East Coast, the Bahamas and Bermuda to stay out of the water on the advice of lifeguards.

The Bermuda Weather Service has lifted the tropical storm warning for Bermuda and no new coastal watches or warnings are in effect, the NHC said.

Ernesto made landfall in Bermuda, a British territory about 650 miles from North Carolina, early Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane, USA TODAY reported. The National Hurricane Center said Ernesto continued to produce strong winds and rain in Bermuda throughout Saturday, hours after the storm moved north toward Canada. Its effects were also felt across the Atlantic.

Puerto Rico was hit by severe storms from Tropical Storm Ernesto in the days before.

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The formation of the latest storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season occurred just over a week after Hurricane Debby made landfall at Big Bend in Florida on Monday, August 5.

What is the short-term hurricane forecast?

There are no dangers in sight in Ernesto’s wake, according to Ryan Truchelut, a Florida meteorologist who works for the USA TODAY Network.

“Although many factors favor the formation of storms, the Atlantic is still flooded with enough dry air and Saharan dust to bleed out tropical waves. This should change sometime in the last week of August,” predicts Truchelut.

National Hurricane Center launches new “cone of concern” with Hurricane Ernesto

The National Hurricane Center released its new “cone of concern” for Hurricane Ernesto on Thursday, August 14.

For Ernesto, you won’t notice much difference between the original cone and the new one, as one of the biggest differences is that the new cone shows wind warnings for inland counties, not just those on the coast.

Both cones are visible on the Hurricane Center website. The new cone can be found by going to the graphics page for Hurricane Ernesto and then clicking on the new experimental cone highlighted in red.

Differences you will see:

  • Observations and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
  • White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white dots for the four- and five-day forecast.

Hurricane Ernesto: What you need to know

  • Location: 690 miles south of Halifax, Newfoundland
  • Maximum sustained winds: 70 miles per hour
  • Movement: North-Northeast at 9 miles per hour
  • Next note: 8 o’clock

Watch and warning issued for Florida, USA

No warnings or alerts directly related to Hurricane Ernesto have been issued for Florida. However, rip currents and small craft warnings have been issued along most of Florida’s coastline as Ernesto’s swell reaches shore.

A tropical storm warning has been issued for:

  • There are no tropical weather warnings or watches in place, but dangerous beach conditions will persist along the east coast of the United States for days to come.

Stakeholders in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor Ernesto’s progress.

How strong is Hurricane Ernesto and where is it heading?

As of 5:00 a.m. AST on Saturday, the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 34.6 degrees north and longitude 63.0 degrees west.

Ernesto gained speed overnight and is currently moving northeast at about 9 mph.

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Spaghetti models for Hurricane Ernesto

Special note on spaghetti models: The figures show a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are the same. The Hurricane Center uses only the four or five best performing models for its forecasts.

➤ Hurricane Ernesto

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Expected impacts of Hurricane Ernesto on Florida

According to the Hurricane Center, beachgoers on the US East Coast must expect a high risk of dangerous surf backflow for several days.

Swell was expected to persist along the east coast of the United States through the weekend. This swell is likely to create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. This swell is expected along the entire U.S. coast and into Atlantic Canada.

“Entering the dangerous surf is strongly advised against,” said the National Weather Service Melbourne.

These conditions have already resulted in fatalities on the US coast.

Two people died in separate surf incidents on Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, on Friday. The National Weather Service Charleston said the emergency management agency reported a rip current death at 10:22 a.m. Friday at Forest Beach and another at 3:22 p.m. Friday at Folly Field Beach.

Impact of Ernesto Florida: Hurricane Ernesto could disrupt your Florida beach plans. Here’s the schedule and what to expect

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Ernesto

  1. Although Ernesto is forecast to remain well off the U.S. East Coast, swells caused by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through early next week. Beachgoers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip current conditions and should avoid the water if lifeguards advise it. Surf and rip current conditions are also possible in the Bahamas, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada over the next few days.
  2. Ernesto could bring wind and wave impacts to large parts of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and into the night Monday into Sunday.

Radar: Watch Hurricane Ernesto approach Bermuda

What else is there and how likely is it that there will be an increase?

The National Hurricane Center reported no further disruptions as of 5 a.m. Sunday.

Interactive map: Which tropical storms and hurricanes have hit your region in the past?

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season is September 10, with peak activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Heavy rainfall forecast

What happens next?

We’ll continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local website’s app to make sure you’re always up to date with the news. And look out for our special subscription offers here.

Contributors: Dinah Voyles Pulver and Mike Snider, USA TODAY

By Olivia

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