Apple prices are expected to remain high for the 2024/25 season, with exporters of quality fruit and apple concentrate once again in a favourable position, according to Eastern fruit. This estimate is based on data from the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) presented at the Forecast 2024 Conference. In addition, the industrial apple segment is expected to remain very favorable for raw material suppliers.
The apple harvest in the top 20 EU countries is expected to fall by 11% in 2024 compared to the already low production levels of the previous year (10.2 million tonnes compared to 11.5 million tonnes). This figure is also 14% below the average of the last three years. Most producing countries are expected to see a decline in yields, including France (-3%), Italy (-1%) and the Netherlands (-1%). The largest losses are expected in Belgium (-34%), Romania (-15%) and, crucially for the Eastern fruit Region, Poland (-20%).
For apple growers in Moldova and Ukraine, this means significantly less competition from Polish apples in Europe and the Middle East, as well as some additional opportunities on the Romanian market. However, only those producers who can supply export-quality apples will be able to take advantage of these opportunities, which could be challenging in both countries.
In Moldova WAPA reports that production will fall by 14% to just 450,000 tonnes in 2024. In Ukraine Eastern fruit estimates that the apple harvest this year will also be lower than last year due to unfavorable weather conditions in spring and summer. In Serbia, apple production is also expected to fall by 19% compared to last year. This general decline could create a favorable situation for producers targeting exports, as the Middle East is expected to face less competition in the European apple segment.
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On the other hand, a serious shortage of apples is not expected in the Middle East, as apple production in Turkey is expected to increase for the seventh year in a row. In addition, the apple harvest in India, which became a major importer of these fruits last season, including from EU countries, is expected to recover somewhat.
The market for industrial apples and apple concentrate also offers promising prospects. In China, apple production is expected to increase only slightly (+2%), while in the US it is expected to fall to its lowest level since 2018. As a result, the supply of apple concentrate on the world market is likely to remain insufficient, supporting industrial apple prices. In addition, a significant decline in apple production is also expected in Austria and Hungary, although these two countries are among the main suppliers of apples for processing in the EU.
Eastern fruit
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