For the first time since before World War II, Ohio State doesn’t have to cross a minefield to win a national championship. Instead of the dreaded misstep that kills their title chances — think Iowa in 2017 and Purdue in 2018 — the Buckeyes can suffer a bad loss and still live to see another day. They can even lose twice and still likely advance to the new 12-team playoff round.
Welcome to the NFL, folks.
A history lesson: Before 1936, national champions were crowned each year by a hodgepodge of unofficial media polls and mathematical rating systems. In 1935, for example, Minnesota (8-0) was ranked No. 1 in some polls, No. 2 in others, and No. 5 in another. Ohio State (7-1) ranked between No. 4 and 8. Associated Press sports editor Alan Gould placed Minnesota, Princeton, and SMU in a three-way tie for No. 1.
Because a wealth-distribution mentality prevailed back then, rankings were not as important as they are today. Likewise, losing a game was not a catastrophe.
It wasn’t until the introduction of the weekly AP rankings in 1936 that the “one and done” principle was introduced. A single loss didn’t automatically mean the end of hopes of winning a mythical national championship, but it did put the odds on life support. And two losses pulled the plug.
That’s changing this season, because the expanded playoffs mean that even two losses can no longer necessarily ruin the path to the national championship.
That stress-reducing reality is part I of Ohio State’s story as it begins this season. The Buckeyes no longer need to win every game to feel confident. I’ll miss the heaviness that comes with having to win every game, but such is the evolution — or deconstruction — of an amateur sport that’s becoming increasingly professionalized.
Part II of OSU’s story is a little ironic, because while the Buckeyes can lose two games and probably be fine, coach Ryan Day can’t feel safe losing one game. If that game is Michigan.
Yes, I know the Michigan game is a big game every year. But it’s not every year that an OSU coach tries to snap a 3-0 streak against the Wolverines. Day is 1-3 against the Buckeyes’ biggest rival, not quite John Cooper’s stomping ground — Coop was 0-5-1 against UM before picking up his first win as OSU coach — but shaky enough that a fourth straight loss would further enrage his critics and cost him many of his current supporters.
Especially this season, when Michigan returns only five starters from its national championship team, the Buckeyes need to beat Blue. I think they will, but I also thought they would win the last three meetings. I’m no Nostradamus.
But we’re jumping too far ahead in the story. Remember, Part I is about an easier path to the College Football Playoff, not only because of the additional eight playoff spots available, but also because OSU’s regular-season schedule is relatively easy, with eight home games, including Michigan on Nov. 30. The toughest tests will be at Oregon (Oct. 12) and Penn State (Nov. 2), but the Buckeyes can lose one of those games, maybe even both, and still make the playoff, depending on how the Big Ten Championship game plays out.
What Ohio State can’t do is lose three games or lose to both Penn State and Michigan. Should the latter happen, especially if Michigan racks up a couple of losses, the Buckeyes put their fate in the hands of the playoff selection committee, whose three members have strong Ohio ties (Jim Grove, Gary Pinkel and David Sayler) but also include Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel. Do conference loyalty and financial windfall trump rivalry thoughts? Tell me.
Two sets of numbers:
· Day has a 39-0 record against unranked teams and should be 43-0 by the end of September, assuming Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall and probably Michigan State are unranked by then. After that, Day could finish the season 47-0 if Nebraska, Purdue, Northwestern and Indiana remain unranked. Day’s record streak — no other coach has started his career 39-0 against unranked opponents — has to end at some point, but not this season.
· Day has a 17-8 record against ranked teams, but is 2-5 against top-five competition and 1-2 against teams ranked higher than OSU at the time. As critics like to point out, he doesn’t lose the small games, but can’t win the big ones.
Part II. Day has an estimated $20 million in name, image and likeness money at his disposal, which so far has helped him attract the No. 2 recruiting class behind Alabama. He has offensive guru Chip Kelly calling the plays. He has a top-5 defense. He has to beat Michigan. Otherwise, all of the above is chaff.
We have yet to discuss the strengths and weaknesses of these Buckeyes. When people ask what Ohio State will be like, my standard answer is “Really good.” How’s that for a thorough analysis? I’m rarely willing to predict anything extraordinary. Why? I’ve seen quiet teams make incredible noise (2002, 2014), mediocre teams come up late (2014), and teams in control (2003, 2007, 2015) fail to push after they were supposed to cross the finish line first.
The 2024 Buckeyes seem poised to win it all, but I’m taking a “prove it to myself” approach with the offensive line and want to see quarterback Will Howard win a close game (Penn State?) before signing the Kansas State transfer to lead OSU to the promised land. Howard’s running ability gives him an edge over last year’s B+ quarterback Kyle McCord, who went 11-1 as a starter despite criticism, but can Howard make big throws in the biggest games? Stay tuned.
The Buckeyes’ offense should shine and the defense will shine. Anything short of reaching the playoff semifinals will be a disappointment to fans who expect OSU to make the finals.
Two exciting scenarios: What if Ohio State loses to Michigan but wins it all? Is Day safe? He should be. Or conversely, what if the Buckeyes end their three-game losing streak to the Maize and Blue but fall before reaching the playoff semifinals? Keep Day, I say.
As I follow the pulse of Buckeye Nation in the preseason, I feel like “beat Michigan” is the fans’ No. 1 mantra for 2024, even more important than No. 1a, which is beating Georgia/Texas/Alabama/Oregon, etc. in the national championship game in Atlanta.
Ultimately, Parts I and II play off each other. As OSU’s more relaxed schedule comes to an end, Michigan awaits like a long par 5 with water in front of a devilish green. First shot safe. Second shot safe. Hit the green in the allotted time. Slippery 20-foot putt for birdie. Good luck avoiding a three-putt bogey.
Michigan’s season is off to a chaotic start. The NCAA has cursed the Wolverines. Jim Harbaugh has jumped ship and insists he won’t lie, steal or cheat in the NFL. Connor Stalions is bringing his spy plot to Netflix. After their run to the national title, the Wolverines are a little fat and maybe too happy.
The game should be a relatively easy one for the Buckeyes to win, so why does beating Michigan feel more threatening than making the playoffs? Maybe because OSU has often had a history of failures during Thanksgiving week. For heaven’s sake, let’s hope that doesn’t happen again this season.
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