Preview of the Giants-Braves series: Fighting for the last Wild Card spot with an unusual team

It’s been a little over a month since the Giants and Braves faced off, and as is tradition, I thought the Giants were going to walk into a buzzsaw. That wasn’t the case, however. The Giants won two of three games in Atlanta, and it seemed like they were going to make a good run before the All-Star break.

That happened after the break, and now they are just 1.5 games away from the third Wild Card game – the primary goal of the entire offseason – and behind… Atlanta?

Huh? This Atlanta team was so injury-riddled and played in such a “tough division” that they went from what everyone thought would be a division win to the last Wild Card spot. They are only a half-game ahead of the Mets in the NL East for second place (they are several games behind the Phillies) and the third Wild Card spot.

But Atlanta was in a similar situation in early July, and there, as usual, I expressed concerns or lowered expectations:

Why should this worry the Giants? Well, after the April 19-9 game, Atlanta has only a 27-27 record. But They’ve had much of the same problem as the Giants, which is poor road records (20-22 on the season; 6-10 in June). The Wild Card is designed for the best teams to win it in the last month or so, but what about the teams that have earned a Wild Card spot? Could they get so good that through the power of belief and the collapse of the team in front of them, they get a division instead? The Giants could face a team that’s on the verge of taking off.

Atlanta is 15-20 since early July and 42-47 since starting 19-9. They never really took off, but have been treading water since the first month of the season. They’ve had 49 games from Ronald Acuna Jr., 67 from Michael Harris II, 9 innings from Spencer Strider, worse years from Matt Olson (.737 OPS) and Orlando Arcia (.644); and Sean Murphy missed the first few months of the season with an oblique injury.

The situation was so uncertain for them that they traded Jorge Soler and Luke Jackson.

They’re just 8-14 here in the second half, but like the Giants’ previous opponent, Detroit, they’re pretty solid on the road, with a 29-30 record and a +41 run differential (compared to 32-26 at home and a -7 run differential). However, they’ve just lost 2 of 3 games in Colorado and 7 of their last 8.

The Giants are 14-9 in the second half, 35-24 at home with a +20 run differential, and they’re 12-4 on this incredible streak that has seen them play 16 straight games against a team with a sub-.500 record. While that’s not as good as it could have been (they could have won yesterday’s game, for example), it’s enough of a positive result to say “mission accomplished.”

As I wrote last month and quoted above, “the Wild Card is designed so that the best teams win it in the last month or so.” We’re in the “or so” part of the season right now. Atlanta is no longer the powerhouse it was in years past. Still a dangerous team, especially from a starting pitcher perspective, but this is a good test to see if the Giants have developed into a legitimate Wild Card contender or if they’re still a team just trying to push their luck.

Series details

WHO: Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco, California
When: Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday @ 6:45 p.m. PT; Thursday @ 12:45 p.m. PT
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast (Tuesday)

Expected starters
Monday: Chris Sale vs Blake Snell
Tuesday: Charlie Morton vs Kyle Harrison
Wednesday: Grant Holmes vs Robbie Ray
Thursday: Max Fried vs. Logan Webb

Where they stand

Braves, 61-56 (2nd in NLE, WC#3), 503 RS / 469 RA | Last 10 games: 3-7
Giants, 61-59 (4th in NLW, -1.5 WC), 530 RS / 535 RA | Last 10 games: 7-3

Braves to Watch

Jorge Soler: After a somewhat rocky start with his former team (1-for-14 and some poor defensive performances in right field), Soler has hit his stride. He’s started 10 of his last 23 games with 4 home runs, 9 RIs and 3 walks with just 6 strikeouts in 26 PA (.435/.500/.1000). That’s a 6-game sample size similar to his performance in his last 6 games with the Giants (28 PA): 11-for-20 with 1 home run, 3 doubles and 8 walks with 3 strikeouts. But the Giants have maximized his value by making him their DH. Atlanta has him playing, er, right field. Let’s see how that works out at Oracle Park…

Chris Sale: His 6-inning, 9-strikeout start in the last series ended up being Atlanta’s only win against the Giants. Since then, he has made 5 starts, pitching 28 innings with a 2.89 ERA (2.21 FIP) and 38 strikeouts with 11 walks. Mark Canha will have to be outstanding.

Luke Jackson: Any right-thinking person knew this wasn’t Luke Jackson’s year, but also that his trade to Atlanta would be a lot like what happened when the Giants finally cut ties with Mark Melancon: He’d be solid to great. That’s, uh, not happened… not yet, anyway. True, in his first appearance with his old team, he managed a scoreless third of an inning and allowed just 1 run while getting 5 strikeouts in 3.2 innings to cover innings in a 7-0 loss; he even allowed just 1 run (along with 3 hits) in 1 inning in a 17-6 loss. But yesterday in Colorado, he conceded 4 runs (all earned) in the 8th inning of yesterday’s game, leading to a 9-8 loss. So he probably won’t pitch in the first game of this series, but if he can shut down the Giants’ lineup, then just know that it’s not him, it’s them.

Giants to watch

Marco Luciano: He could very well be optioned shortly after this preview is published, but if not, there will be two left-handed starters in this series and Atlanta’s bullpen has two left-handed relievers (Aaron Bummer and AJ Minter). He shouldn’t be used as a platoon player, but since we haven’t seen him in a while, I’ll take what I can get. Then again, the Giants might not be interested in what they expect from him.

Jerar Encarnation: Same general reasoning here. He’s had at least 1 hit in 7 of the 9 games he’s played for the Giants, and the 3:8 walks to strikeouts isn’t as big a disaster here in the near future as it might be in three weeks, but as long as he keeps in touch, he’ll probably do good things. The problem is that Atlanta leads the sport in misses, a 9.42 K/9 team that handily beats Minnesota (9.28) and Houston (9.22).

Kyle Harrison: We’re now at the stage of the season where the Giants’ theoretically dominant starting pitchers are running into a conceptual problem: Will it hurt them in any way because they’re mostly left-handed (Snell, Harrison, Ray)? Atlanta’s team wRC+ of 108 against lefties is tied with Houston, but no better than the Giants’ wRC+ of 119 against LHP (tied with the Dodgers). Still, it’s entirely possible that one of those lefties could get caught in a buzzsaw, and I hope it’s not Harrison who starts tomorrow, since today is his birthday.

Forecast time