MTA leadership, including current New York City Transit interim president Demetrius Crichlow, expressed dissatisfaction with the pilot project, saying it did not produce the desired numbers.
“The data … shows a lot, but we haven’t seen anything that is consistent with that original intent,” Crichlow said at a meeting of the MTA’s bus committee on July 29, the same day the evaluation of the program was released.
The MTA declined to answer a series of follow-up questions about its evaluation of the pilot project last week, instead referring the Eagle to the July 29 committee meeting.
The agency’s main criticism was that the pilot project did not attract enough new passengers. Data showed that 12 percent of the pilot’s passengers were new to the system.
“There hasn’t been an influx of new riders into the transit system,” said Jon Kaufman, MTA’s director of strategic initiatives. “We’re not seeing any kind of car-taking here, and I think it’s mostly benefiting existing riders.”
MTA officials did not provide any information on what percentage of new riders would be needed to consider the program a success.
According to the data, 27 percent of the new passengers came from other routes and were possibly looking for a cheaper alternative. Other new passengers included those who previously either walked or drove or did not travel the route for other reasons. About 11 percent of the new passengers previously used a car or taxi.
Unlike the MTA, Mamdani does not see this 11 percent as a deficiency and praises the fact that the pilot project has caused at least some people to get out of their cars and switch to public transportation.
“I just can’t understand how anyone – other than those who are already motivated to support or oppose – can look at a 30 or 38 percent increase in ridership in the context of the struggle to get ridership back to pre-COVID levels and say it’s not a success,” he said.
According to the data, there were about 3,744 new riders on the Q4 route between September 2023 and May 2024, meaning just over 400 of those riders chose not to ride on the often crowded streets of southeast Queens.
Most new drivers have the same financial circumstances as the original drivers. 44 percent of new drivers earn less than $28,000 a year, compared to 46 percent of existing drivers.
During the July 29 hearing, MTA officials said they were concerned about lost revenue from the pilot project, as well as the drop in bus speeds as a result of increased ridership. In the fourth quarter, there was a 0.1 percent drop in service provided (where that percentage represents the percentage of scheduled buses used during peak hours). The Jamaica route also saw a 4.8 percent drop in bus speeds and a slight increase in travel times for commuters.
“I think there were different people who had different ideas about what success would mean here,” Kaufman said.
Mamdani, who is rumored to be considering challenging Mayor Eric Adams next year — during his interview with the Eagle, Mamadani said he was “continuing to think about” a possible candidacy — said the MTA has had its eye on the plan from the beginning.
“The MTA has tried to portray these results, which are incredible at first glance, as unremarkable because it was opposed to the idea from the start,” Mamdani said.
Mamdani argued that the MTA would always “fudge” the numbers because it opposed an idea that would fundamentally change its fare collection model, he claimed.
“Their resistance varied depending on when we talked about it,” he said. “At one point, the resistance was that a pilot like this would increase the rate of fare evasion on the surrounding routes. This pilot showed that it actually had no effect on the rate of fare evasion. We heard concern after concern that was not borne out in the actual results.”
Although the number of fare evasions on fare-free routes increased, it was less than one percentage point below the system-wide average.
Regardless, the program will be discontinued at the end of August, which is expected to cause some disappointment among passengers who have not paid for the route in recent months.
The MTA said it will provide appropriate signage so there is no confusion about returning to full fare.
“When this pilot ends, those same New Yorkers will be asking us whether we’re going to have their backs or not,” Mamdani said. “I think New Yorkers who have experienced a moment in their everyday lives where their needs were met will be deeply disappointed and shocked.”
However, Mamdani hopes the program will be given new energy before the next budget cycle in the spring.
“I hope this is just the beginning of a renewed initiative to ensure that after this pilot ends in September, New Yorkers see another version of this next year,” he said.
“I think the MTA will be convinced by what New Yorkers have shown us and their preferences,” he said.
